Don't look for the small business lending climate to get easier in 2013. Owners who are uneasy about the economy, taxes and health care aren't expected to significantly increase their borrowing, especially as many have been paying down debt since the recession. But even those who are ready to borrow are expected to find it's still hard to get a loan. Bankers are unlikely to be more liberal in their lending policies.
Depressed lending levels may be with us well beyond 2013, says James Schrager, a professor of entrepreneurship at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business.
The problem isn't just that banks are cautious about small business loans. Schrager notes that home equity loans, a traditional source of money for people starting or expanding a business, remain difficult to get, the result of the collapse in the mortgage market in 2008.
Small Business Majority's Arensmeyer is hopeful that a bill introduced in Congress this year to allow credit unions to make more loans to small businesses will get more traction when the new Congress convenes. That bill would more than double the amount of total assets that credit unions can use to lend to small businesses to 27.5 percent.
But he's also not expecting major changes in lending next year.
"Sadly, I don't think we're going to increase our access to capital overnight," he says.
A trend that's expected to gain speed in 2013 is what's calling onshoring. That's the term for manufacturing that had been done overseas, and that's now taking place back in U.S. factories. Apple Inc. earlier this month said it would move production of some of its Mac computers to the U.S. from China next year — but many small businesses have already been making the switch. While Apple is an example of a big company moving in this direction, the majority of U.S. manufacturers are small businesses.
There are several reasons behind the trend. As China becomes more of a middle-class country, wages for its workers are rising, and that is lessening some of the appeal of manufacturing there for U.S. companies, says Steven Kaplan, a professor of entrepreneurship and finance at Chicago's Booth School. Over the past two decades, it was the cheaper labor in China that prompted businesses of all sizes to have everything from computers to clothes to food ingredients made in China.
The rising cost of fuel, which has made transporting goods more expensive, is another factor in onshoring.
"Manufacturing in the U.S. is relatively more attractive than it has been in 20 years," Kaplan says.
SKILLED WORKER SHORTAGE
While companies' caution has weighed on the job market, many company owners who actually want to hire say it's hard to find workers to fill some positions.
It's becoming more difficult to find people who have the skills they need, these owners say. Many new manufacturing jobs require high-tech skills. They include positions at factories where computers are used to create products like airplane parts and machinery. And some require several years of training, says Shane, the Case Western Reserve professor. For example: A company that makes metal molds which are in turn used to create automobile dashboards. That takes a machinist who knows cutting-edge processes to make the molds.
"You cannot take someone off the street to do it," Shane says.
Because of changing technology, owners are struggling to find qualified workers in 2013.
"There's a whole level of work that's going to require skills that weren't needed in traditional jobs," says Arensmeyer. He notes that community colleges around the country are offering courses that will help train workers to fill these jobs. But training takes time, and the demand for jobs may continue to outstrip the supply of qualified workers.