From the National Weather Service, Norman Forecast Office:
Breezy to windy conditions, warm to hot temperatures, and very dry conditions west of a dryline and
ahead of a cold front will cause extreme wildfire danger late this morning through this evening,
mainly 10 am to 10 pm across western north Texas and the southern half of Oklahoma. A Red Flag Warning is in effect.
A few storms will affect parts of southeast and south central OK this morning.
A few of these storms could become strong to marginally severe with hail up to the size of quarters possible.
From the National Weather Service, Tulsa Forecast Office:
Severe weather likely late this afternoon and evening across far eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas…
This outlook is for northwest and west central Arkansas as well as much of eastern Oklahoma.
Today and tonight.
Risk…limited. area….far eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
Onset….around 400 pm.
Area…Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
Onset…This morning and again around 400 pm.
Area…Far eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
Onset…Around 400 pm.
Area…eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
Fire weather danger.
Area…east central Oklahoma.
Discussion… a few isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible across far southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas this morning with the threat for large hail.
A strong upper level storm system moving over the four corners region will quickly lift into the central plains today. In response …surface low pressure will move into northeast oklahoma this afternoon accompanied by a strong cold front and associated dry line extending south into far southeast Oklahoma.
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the dry line by late afternoon across far eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Additional severe thunderstorms will likely develop this evening as the cold front moves through far northeast Oklahoma and into northwest Arkansas. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threat…however isolated tornadoes will also be possible…especially with any supercell storms that develop ahead of the dry line and to a lesser extent the storms that form along the cold front. Locally heavy rainfall will also be likely in the stronger storms. The severe weather threat will end by midnight as the cold front sweeps southeast of the area.
Behind the dry line…across east central Oklahoma…dangerous fire weather conditions will develop as gusty southwest winds increase with very warm and dry conditions. Any fires that develop would quickly spread out of control.
Please refer to the latest fire weather product /okcrfwtsa/ for the latest information.
And a here’s a look at the new U.S. Drought Monitor numbers released this morning:
|3 Months Ago||12/31/2013||50.84||49.16||38.17||18.99||4.84||2.40|
|Start of Calendar Year||12/31/2013||50.84||49.16||38.17||18.99||4.84||2.40|
|Start of Water Year||10/1/2013||21.74||78.26||43.00||17.62||4.42||1.45|
|One Year Ago||4/2/2013||0.00||100.00||99.30||80.68||52.97||9.90|
- D0 – Abnormally Dry
- D1 – Moderate Drought
- D2 – Severe Drought
- D3 – Extreme Drought
- D4 – Exceptional Drought
The Drought Monitor focuses on broad-scale conditions. Local conditions may vary. See accompanying text summary for forecast statements.
- David Simeral, Western Regional Climate Center