Oklahoma Weather Blog

NewsOK | BLOGS

Area Forecast Discussion from the National Weather Service

by Bryan Painter and Tiffany Gibson Published: July 11, 2013
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1240 PM CDT THU JUL 11 2013

.DISCUSSION...
REFER TO THE 18Z AVIATION FORECAST BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...
PERSISTENT SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...WITH NO REAL ACTIVITY TO SPEAK OF ELSEWHERE. MOST
TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...BUT GIVEN
MOIST AND HOT ENVIRONMENT...ISOLD SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP VIRTUALLY
ANYWHERE...AND CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT BRIEF REDUCTION IN VSBYS
AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGH EVENING. THE MOST PROBABLE TERMINALS TO
EXPERIENCE IMPACTS WILL BE KPNC...KOKC AND KOUN. ANY REMAINING
SHRA/TSRA SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT THU JUL 11 2013/ 

UPDATE...
CONVECTION IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA CONTINUES
TO PROVIDE SOME DECENT RAINFALL TO PARTS OF
NOBLE AND KAY COUNTIES. AN OVERALL DECREASE IN 
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

ADDITIONAL STORMS...LIKELY LESS NUMEROUS...WILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF OKLAHOMA.  

SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
MOST PLACES WHICH SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS A 
LITTLE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.   

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT THU JUL 11 2013/ 

DISCUSSION...
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

AVIATION...
SCATTERED TSRA OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND N OK WILL MOVE SLOWLY
THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY NOON. ADDITIONAL TSRA MAY
FORM THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT PROBABILITIES AT ANY GIVEN TAF
SITE ARE TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTIONING THEM IN THE TAFS. WINDS
WILL BE SOMEWHAT ERRATIC THIS MORNING...DUE TO AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
.FROM OKC TO LTS AT 1100Z...AND A WEAK FRONT...LOCATED FROM W OF
END TO OKC. BY AFTERNOON...GENERALLY E/SE WINDS WILL BE THE RULE
AS THE BOUNDARIES WASH OUT OR WEAKEN. EXCEPT FOR AREAS IN/NEAR
TSRA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM CDT THU JUL 11 2013/ 

DISCUSSION...
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY ENCOURAGE THE CONTINUATION OF
WEAK CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. RAIN CHANCES
WILL DECREASE SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...LEADING INTO A
MAINLY DRY WEEKEND. 

RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN SUNDAY IN THE FAR NORTHEAST
PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA...AND ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION NEXT
WEEK. MODELS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM THE EAST
OR NORTHEAST...AND THIS MORNING THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAS INCREASED
WITH THE LOW PASSING OVER KANSAS OR OKLAHOMA. THIS SEEMS TO BE
SUFFICIENT JUSTIFICATION TO RAISE POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY
NEXT WEEK.

WE HAVE REMOVED A COUPLE OF COUNTIES IN NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
FROM THE HEAT ADVISORY...SINCE THE FORECAST MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES/HEAT INDICES DO NOT WARRANT AN ADVISORY THERE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  95  73  94 /  10  10  10   0 
HOBART OK         75 103  75 101 /  10   0   0   0 
WICHITA FALLS TX  76 101  75  99 /  10   0   0   0 
GAGE OK           72  99  73  98 /  10   0   0   0 
PONCA CITY OK     73  97  73  95 /  10   0   0  10 
DURANT OK         76  98  71  94 /  20  10   0   0 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR OKZ007-012-018-019-
     024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

TX...NONE.
   Please Login to your Facebook account to see comments
by Bryan Painter
Assistant Local Editor
Bryan Painter, assistant local editor, has 31 years’ experience in journalism, including 22 years with the state's largest newspaper, The Oklahoman. In that time he has covered such events as the April 19, 1995 bombing of the Alfred P. Murrah...
+ show more

by Tiffany Gibson
News Online Editor
Tiffany Gibson has worked for the Oklahoman since August 2011 and is a member of the digital news team. In addition to writing and web editing, she also creates multimedia features for the website and maintains social media accounts. A Tennessee...
+ show more


Trending Now


AROUND THE WEB

  1. 1
    Billy Crystal breaks down in tears during Robin Williams memorial
  2. 2
    Family asks for help finding hit-and-run driver
  3. 3
    Residents Voice Bridge Safety Concerns Near Lexington
  4. 4
    Found: Oklahoma police find missing 9-month-old & 6-year-old
  5. 5
    Oklahoma Highway Patrol trooper accused of rape resigns
+ show more