What are the chances?

By Darnell Mayberry Modified: May 21, 2007 at 11:39 am •  Published: May 21, 2007
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Tuesday night's NBA Draft Lottery will be intriguing to basketball fans everywhere because it will provide a glimpse into whether Ohio State's Greg Oden or Texas' Kevin Durant will be the top pick in the 2007 NBA Draft.

The Draft Lottery will be intriguing to basketball fans in the Sooner State because it will give us yet another chance to play oddsmakers with the NBA.

For much of the past two years we've mulled over the chances of the Hornets either staying in Oklahoma or returning at a later date. Thanks to the efforts of homegrown bigwig Clay Bennett last summer, we added the Seattle SuperSonics into our dreamy deliberations.

Now, in the hours leading up to Tuesday's official unveiling of the 2007 draft order, we can contemplate the chances of one of our new favorite teams returning with Durant or Oden.

Likely? Hardly.

Worth dreaming? Definitely.

With an 18.45 percent chance of landing one of the top two picks, the Sonics have a much better shot than the Hornets at getting lucky enough to draft one of the highly coveted players. The Hornets have only a 1.31 percent chance of jumping into the top two spots.

But history says anything can happen.

Only twice in the past 10 lotteries has the team with the best chance of winning the top pick actually come away with the No. 1 selection. Since the NBA instituted a weighted format in 1990, giving the worst team the most chances to come away with the No. 1 pick, only four teams that had the best chance actually won the top selection.


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