Computer problems
Sooners lag in BCS standings because of the computer rankings
Sooners lag in BCS standings because of the computer rankings

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By Jake Trotter
Published: October 15, 2007

NORMAN — The coaches like Oklahoma.

So do the Harris voters.

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But the computers really, really don't.

That's what the first BCS standings revealed Sunday, bringing clarity to this crazy college football season.

Ohio State, South Florida and Boston College, all unbeaten, top the BCS in that order.

But despite being ranked ahead of LSU in both the coaches and Harris polls, the Sooners are one spot behind the Tigers at a distant No. 5 in the BCS, thanks to OU's poor showing in the computers, which emphasize strength of schedule.

The BCS consists of three components, each weighted equally: the coaches poll, the Harris poll and an average of six computer rankings, with a team's best and worst computer ranking discarded.

In the computers, LSU is No. 2. OU is No. 11.

And because the Sooners have just one regular-season opponent left at the moment in the BCS top 25 (No. 24 Texas Tech), it's highly unlikely OU will pass the Tigers in the computers if both teams win out.

In fact, it's far more likely that LSU will leapfrog OU in the Harris and coaches polls after a strong performance this Saturday at home against No. 17 Auburn.

Essentially, for the Sooners to make the national championship in New Orleans, here's what has to happen:

•OU must win the rest of its regular-season games.

•OU must defeat a strong opponent in the Big 12 championship to raise its computer profile, preferably an 11-1 Missouri or 10-win Kansas.

•And at least three teams among Ohio State, South Florida, Boston College and LSU must lose.

Boston College seems most likely to go down, with games left at No. 11 Virginia Tech, Maryland and Clemson to go along with home bouts against fallen powers Florida State and Miami.

USF has its most challenging game left this Thursday at Rutgers. If the Bulls escape, they'll also have two losable games at home against No. 23 Cincinnati and Louisville.

Ohio State still has two tough road challenges at Penn State and the season-finale at Michigan.

But even then, could a one-loss Ohio State or USF sneak in ahead of OU?

It's possible.

Both USF and Ohio State — which are first and fifth in the computers — probably would need to fall out of the top five in the Harris and coaches polls for OU to climb past them in the BCS.

LSU, meanwhile, seems least likely to lose since the Tigers won't face a ranked opponent after Auburn until the SEC championship.

But if college football in October has revealed anything, it's that anyone can lose, no matter the opponent.

The Sooners need more of that to happen, because they don't yet control their own destiny.

The computers do.


 


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Sharon, your reply is close to what I am talking about. BState's win was an aberation. The BStates of the college football world couldn't do that more than 1 in 100 games. I reitterate that this BCS crap "every team gets a chance" is pure nonsense. The OU/NT football game and many others like are in fact boring. We need to go back to the old bowl system and the voters. I say dump the nobody schools.
Steve, Ketchum - Oct 16, 2007 at 8:20 am
Perhaps one reason there have been so many upsets this year, besides the fact that the "lesser" schools are getting pretty good, is all of the BCS nonsense. The major teams start feeling the pressure early. They not only have to win, but win with style. Look at OU last season. Peterson hurt himself scoring a late touchdown when he should have been on the bench and safe from injury.
Tom, Overland Park - Oct 16, 2007 at 7:38 am
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Why are we still talking Boise ST? Its bad enough that I see them every week on the game changing performance or the army whatever it is commercial, blah, blah, blah. I'll repeat the BCS is headed for a mess as usual and OU needs to keep winning to keep pace one at a time.
James, Aberdeen - Oct 15, 2007 at 11:23 pm
Jeff from Edmond, You comment regarding OU to be lucky to be in its current position given it loss to CU is correct. The loss, being so early, is not going to hurt us as much as losses take from here on out. LSU lost on the road to a ranked Kentucky team, so that doesn't hurt as much as losing to a Stanford did to USC. Heck they won against Arizona and still went down in the polls. Given what has transpired so far this college football season, nothing is to be taken for granted. OU needs to focus on each opponent, even ISU and Baylor, as even a mediocre showing will hurt them in the polls. LSU and South Carolina benefit from the love SEC teams get from the media and the rankings they have acheived. OU needs Tech and Kansas to keep winning so that they have good rankings when OU plays them to help them in the computer rankings. Although almost everyone hates the current BCS situation, it is what it is and OU can help itself by winning out and having at least two of its last three games be against highly ranked opponents. We have to see what happens in the next few weeks.
Ed, Riverside - Oct 15, 2007 at 9:44 pm
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Well Steve, "Nobody School" Boise State was good enough to beat OU last year. Since they are "a nobody school" should that be taken away? What about OU running 70+ points up on a "nobody school"? Talk about a boring game...replay OU vs NTU...try not to snore. Every team deserve an equal chance..Including your "nobody schools".
K, Oklahoma City - Oct 15, 2007 at 8:25 pm
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I hope some of the fans and writers do get a playoff system, or better yet the likes of USF and BC get in the championship game this year together. I hope you Get what you ask for. Now wouldn't that be a supercalifragilistic expealidoucios of a football game. NOT! Sports TV would lose millions playing a game nobody would want to see and talk about alumi support(guarantee you I will not watch it). Well that is what you get if people keep clamoring to let the little nobody schools in the rankings etc and put up with them ranked above some one-loss teams. USF beating WVa, obviously WVa was over-ranked. And before anyone starts, the ACC is wuss conference.

Boise State winning 67 to 60 something over Nevada HA HA HA to both teams. I did notice that it got tons of National TV exposure HA HA. That is not football, it young men running around on a field. Obviously no defense on the field, and offenses running sand lot, grade school type of plays. I pray this politcal correct crap goes away before the real college football system goes the way of the crybabies(I didn't get a chance to play mommie types).
And if USF or BC or BS ever make it to the title game it will be totally awesome and very well deserved when a Big 10, SEC, Big XII, or PAC team wastes them. I am sick of little nobody school teams.
Rant over :)
Steve, Ketchum - Oct 15, 2007 at 6:49 pm
Everyone complained about Boise State being in the mix last year, but I don't think anyone is second-guessing that now, are they? Strength of schedule has to play some part in all of this, as well as wins and losses. We still have 4 or 5 games to go, so let's see what shakes out. Yes, it would be embarrasing for South Florida to make it to the National title game and get spanked by Ohio State or whoever, but I'm not sure USF is a bad team from what I have seen.
Lloyd, Irving - Oct 15, 2007 at 4:54 pm
i think a playoff of 4 conferance champs would great,they should at least have to play one now.i dont understand how you can claim a conf champ without playing the best two teams aganst each other thats just one of the many negative things about the bcs.i hate to say it ,and definatly dont like it but the bcs has favored us so many times in the past,its against us this year i hope it changs and works out for us but if not we can still go to the big 12 and win out .i truly think we have the best team in the top 10 no matter what the pools say BOOMERSOONER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
marcus - Oct 15, 2007 at 4:27 pm
We should toss the computer rankings out completely. I am not complaining about OU's ranking but I do not think S Florida should be a higher ranked team than OU or an LSU, USc etc. SFL may be undefeated but that is a very very decieving record. They are not a #2 or 3 team in the country. This BCS rankings crap is turning into a PC game where everyone plays, their mommies gug them etc etc. That type of thinking ruined Little League Baseball and Pop Warner football, now it is trying to ruin NCAA Div I. Anyone notice that the PC clowns now have us calling the divisions I and II by PC baby names. What a crock.
Steve, Ketchum - Oct 15, 2007 at 4:21 pm
The whole BCS system is screwy. We need to have a playoff.
Jeff, Edmond - Oct 15, 2007 at 4:17 pm
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We have a playoff!!! We're watching it every week!!! Wher would the cutoffbe? What would decide who was ranked where? We would still have the contreversy of a ranking system because there is a few more teams than the NFL. Quit whining about the system and enjoy the one we have, college football is as great as ever!! Better than #1 playing a 6-5 team and #2 playing a 6-5 team and debating about which team is better!
Todd, Casa Grande - Oct 15, 2007 at 3:46 pm
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We have a playoff!!! We're watching it every week!!! Wher would the cutoffbe? What would decide who was ranked where? We would still have the contreversy of a ranking system because there is a few more teams than the NFL. Quit whining about the system and enjoy the one we have, college football is as great as ever!! Better than #1 playing a 6-5 team and #2 playing a 6-5 team and debating about which team is better!
Todd, Casa Grande - Oct 15, 2007 at 3:45 pm
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My only reef beef with the computers is that they don't seem to understand reality. It all comes down to wins and losses. Assume OU has 4 non-conf games. In one scenario, OU has to play LSU and then 3 terrible teams. In another scenario, they play 4 teams that are all marginal, but nobody that really stands a realistic chance of beating them, but these would still be teams that would end the year with good records.

In the computer's eyes, secnario #2 would be a better schedule strenth because there is noboday terrible. In reality, going undefeated against 3 jokers and LSU would be a much tougher schedule.

I think there needs to be a cap on how a bad team affects your schedule streght. Iowa State is terrible, but they would probably easily beat North Texas. Computers might see a win over Iowa State as better than a win over NT, but these two should count the same - or the NT game shouldn't hurt you more than OSU.
Jeff, Edmond - Oct 15, 2007 at 12:30 pm
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Wins and losses make up a big part of the computer rankings. If OSU, USF, and BC lose a game, they'll drop behind OU in the Harris and Coaches polls, and likely will go behind them in the Computer Polls as well. If any of those teams are undefeated, then too bad for OU. We lost to CU and don't deserve a shot at the title over any of those teams if they remain undefeated.

OU is lucky to be where it is, considering the loss to the Buffs. Let's just sit back, watch for teams in front of us to lose and see where the chips fall at the end of the year.
Jeff, Edmond - Oct 15, 2007 at 12:18 pm
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I agree, Mr. Your from the great town of Way. With the computers not including I-AA opponents in the equation, there is a misleading perspective. Ohio State started the season against Youngstown State. South Florida opened against Elon. The top two BCS teams don't have these games included in their strength of schedule. This definitely needs to be addressed.
Chris, Oklahoma City - Oct 15, 2007 at 10:16 am
I agree, Mr. Your from the great town of Way. With the computers not including I-AA opponents in the equation, there is a misleading perspective. Ohio State started the season against Youngstown State. South Florida opened against Elon. The top two BCS teams don't have these games included in their strength of schedule. This definitely needs to be addressed.
Chris, Oklahoma City - Oct 15, 2007 at 10:15 am
Two points. 1) Beating the same team twice (Misery in Big 12 champ game) diminishes the value of both victories in the computers. Stupid and not fair.

2) OU tries not to schedule D1-AA teams as cupcakes, however it is better for the BCS ranking if they do. The computers throw out all Div 1-AA games, thus it doesn't hurt the strength of schedule like the North Texas and Utah St. games are doing now. Again, very very stupid and not fair.
Your, way - Oct 15, 2007 at 9:52 am
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Steve - A play off is to let the players decide their fate not a bunch of guys sitting in rooms analyzing data to decide who the better team is. I love the drama this season, but I think the fans and the players deserve a chance to prove it on the field. As you say, any cinderella team can beat a powerhouse on any given saturday, but to win aa National title in a playoff takes a team playing as a team week in and week out.

I say every conf has a championship and then the conference champs play in a playoff with the losers still going to bowl games and the winners playing for it all. I mean, c'mon, if OU were to lose in a playoff game and go to the say fiesta bowl or whatever to play Alabama or someon, wouldn't you still go see them play? I would. Any way, Sooners keep your head down and keep focused win out and let the system do what it does. At least the BIG 12 title is still yours for the taking. BOOMER!!!!!!!!!!
Matthew, Casper - Oct 15, 2007 at 9:48 am
Why in the world do some people want a playoff, unless these people want a bunch of cinderella nobody's to have the opportunity to upset a bigger and better football school/team. A playoff system just allows one of these nobody teams to have an upset win. On any given Saturday a nobody can beat a better football team. The win on that 'any given Saturday' is not a true indicator/ranking of the weaker team. I believe the 3 polls that have been used for years to be a better indicator of teams rankings. The computer rankings use number and stats. Numbers and stats can be used to prove anything the user of the stats wants to. Numbers and statistics lie. What is this playoff system for?..... MONEY and MONEY only.
Steve, Ketchum - Oct 15, 2007 at 8:36 am
This is great, lots of excitment. How can you not like this, a playoff would spoil all of the fun! The winner of the Big 12 South will likely have two loses going into the Big 12 Championship game.
Robert, Kansas City - Oct 15, 2007 at 8:22 am
You'd think that South Florida's game against Elon would hurt them more than it is. Too bad all the usually decent non-conference opponents we had this year are garbage.
Chris, Hesston - Oct 15, 2007 at 7:46 am
You'd think that South Florida's game against Elon would hurt them more than it is. Too bad all the usually decent non-conference opponents we had this year are garbage.
Chris, Hesston - Oct 15, 2007 at 7:45 am
Kerry - I couldn't agree more.
Bobby, Edmond - Oct 15, 2007 at 7:25 am
This is why Div 1 needs a playoff system. Every conference should have a championship game and the top 4 teams in the final BCS are in the playoffs.
Kerry, Jacksonville - Oct 15, 2007 at 7:06 am

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