Had Oklahoma not blown its 17-point, second-half lead at Colorado on Sept. 29, the Sooners would be ranked No. 1 this week and in control of their own destiny with blue sky in the forecast.
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Instead, they need help, and lots of it.
But if ever you needed a helping hand, there's no time like the present.
Never in the history of college football have so many teams been so darn helpful.
Hugo resident Richard Billingsley, whose computer ranking is one of six used in the BCS standings, has studied college football for more than 40 years.
He can't recall a season quite like this, which is why he scoured every Associated Press poll back to its origin in 1936.
"It's just so unbelievable. I've never seen anything like it,” Billingsley said. "And you know why that is? Because nothing like this has ever happened before. We're witnessing history here. It's just a wacky, wacky year.”
It is highly improbable — though not impossible — OU will advance to the Jan. 7 national title game at the Superdome.
The Sooners remain mathematically alive for the BCS national title, but they've got zero chance if several teams don't cooperate.
Computers are the culprit.
Humans like the Sooners, but computers most certainly do not.
While the Harris Interactive and USA Today polls rank OU at No. 4, computers place the Sooners at a distant No. 11 with little chance of improving that status on their own thanks to being in the putrid Big 12.
OU's lone shot at a quality win from here on out would be to beat an undefeated Kansas team for the Big 12 title on Dec. 1 in San Antonio.
Truth is, the Sooners could win the rest of their games and fall in the BCS.
These are mathematical certainties:
• If Ohio State, South Florida, Boston College and LSU fail to lose the remainder of the season, OU will never climb higher than its current No. 5 spot in the BCS standings.
• If Arizona State goes unbeaten, it will pass the Sooners in the BCS rankings.
• If Southern Cal, California or Oregon goes unbeaten from this point forward, it will pass OU.
• If South Carolina or Kentucky finishes the regular season with one loss and wins the SEC championship game, it will pass the Sooners.
"What people need to remember about computers is they respond really quickly to quality wins,” Billingsley said. "Even though Southern Cal is not getting any love right now, they could win two of those games (against Oregon and Cal) and be right back up in the top five.
"The Sooners definitely need some help, and to be honest with you, I think they're going to get it. Out of Ohio State, South Florida and Boston College, I don't think any of them is going to go undefeated.”
OU could take one step closer toward its eighth national title tonight if Rutgers beats visiting South Florida.
And 42 hours later, if Kentucky beats Florida, the Sooners could take one step back.
Both through no fault of their own.
Even with the 27-24 loss at Colorado, it wasn't crazy to think OU might return to the top 5 nationally by, oh, the final regular-season poll.
But it took the Sooners just two weeks to return to national prominence.
Who knows where they might be two weeks from now?
This is the year to expect the unexpected.
And that's good news for OU. Maybe.
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the posers at SFU helped us out last night. I never thought they were a top 10 team let alone #2. Their buildup by the press was ridiculous. Most of the SFU/Rutgers game looked like glorified sandlot football.
OU has only itself to blame for its predicament. The Sooners went to Boulder overconfident, and it bit 'em where the sun don't shine.
OU also is being hurt by its weak OOC schedule. Miami isn't the good opponent it seemed to be when the game was scheduled, and North Texas and Utah State have one win between them. Shame on OU for even having those two on the schedule.
Finally, OU is being hurt by Big 12 teams like Texas Tech and Kansas who schedule nobody but creampuffs for OOC games. So what if they win them all--they beat nobodies, and the computer rankings reflect that. So the Sooners' strength of schedule is killing them in the computers.
Bottom line is that the Sooners should have taken care of business in Boulder. Then all this hand-wringng would be unnecessary.
Further, the non-conference schedules of Big 12 and SEC teams reveals that the SEC is 5-4 against BCS conference teams and Big 12 is 6-6. SEC teams have played 25 games against non-BCS teams, including 8 against FCS teams. Big 12 teams have played 34 games against non-BCS teams, only 6 against FCS teams. Even though the SEC and Big 12 have the same number of teams, the Big 12 has played 12 more non-conference teams than the SEC. If the SEC would play more non-conference games then we could truly see who is the best conference.
Computers put out what humans put into them. The fact that the computers would consider PAC10 teams or SEC teams as quality and the Big 12 as not quality is the fault of humans, not computers. No one really knows how good a conference is until the bowls end. There has to be a better system.
There will never be a perfect system. The BCS isn't the best, neither is a playoff system. So what are we left with? I agree that it creates excitment with the BCS, I find myself watching and getting updates on the games to find out where the rankings will be.
No Mike, I think many, including myself, agree with you. The regular season matters in college football more than in any other sport, which is part of what makes it better than all other sports. Every. Single. Game. Matters.
The BCS is far from perfect, but Matt is right when he said it is so much better than the old system. I know some feel a playoff would be the perfect solution, but it would also have disadvantages. A game like App St. and Michigan would be meaningless. All Michigan would have to do is make the playoffs by winning their conference or whatever it took to make the playoffs and they would still have a chance to win the NC. They have no shot under this system. That is the way it should be. I like how from the first weekend in September you know your team has to win or your national title chances are hurt. Football would be more like basketball with a playoff. March madness is what everyone gets excited about. Who really cares that much about the regular season in basketball? I always feel like the playoffs have begun as soon as the season begins in football. Every game has more meaning. That's just my opinion. I know most people probably disagree with me.
I hate to disagree with a fellow Sooner Brent, but I am going to have too this time. Don't get wrong. I am an alumnus and have been devoted to Sooner football since 1971. Big XII football is like air or water to me; however, I now live on the west coast. Because of that, I watch Big XII and Pac 10 football every Saturday. Oregon, Cal, USC and Arizona State are better than every team in the Big XII save OU. Study there rosters very carefully. Athlete for athlete, only Texas and OU are even in the ballpark talent wise. There skill position players are every bit as fast, if not faster (unlike the Big 10). Their lineman are just as big, strong and athletic. Check the numbers. (Unlike the Big Least.) Frankly, in my honest opinion, the Pac 10 is the most UNDER-rated conference in the land.
"Everything is too vanilla in sooner land right now." ....please tell me you're joking, right?? And as for the SEC, yes they are the best conference out there - but everyone get off the PAC-10 bandwagon. They are the most OVER-RATED conference out there!! Look at the bias that exists....SC loses to a 40-point underdog and the next week they are still ranked top 10 in the polls? Give me a break. The only reason everyone thinks the PAC-10 is so good is because that's what the "expert" analyists are spewing out. It's garbage! haha. And as for the Big 12, yes we've had a couple of down years - but we are getting back there!
Matt, couldn't have said it better myself! No matter what system we have in place, there are always going to be nay-sayers and people who believe there teams are getting screwed over. A playoff system would not be good for college football at all - if you want that, go watch the NFL. The current setup makes college football so exciting game in and game out - every game is like a playoff game!
The fact that North Texas and Utah St. are losing so many games is hurting more than the conference is. So Texass and Nebraska are down, Kansas, Misery and TT are up. OU should have played some Div. 1-AA creampuffs instead of 1-A creampuffs, because the computers don't use those games in the strength of schedule. Sad but true.
BCS is the worst thing ever? I don't think so. I'm no huge BCS fan, but that's the only reason we're even having this discussion. Look at 2003-- people complain that OU and LSU played in the Sugar Bowl and USC was shut out. Prior to the BCS, however, OU would have played in the Orange, LSU in the Sugar, and USC in the Rose. Now is that really a better system? Would last year really have been better if OSU and Florida didn't play each other at the end? Under the old system, I don't believe any of the current top five would have played each other in bowl games. Still think the BCS is the worst thing ever?
bottom line, big 12 is weak.
Im a die hard OU fan, but were not at the level of the SEC and PAC10 teams period....
If our only loss is to colorado, then its our own fault, that should have never happened.
Bring back Mike Stoops, put Gundy or Heupel at O-Coord, and maybe we will take the next step. Everything is too vanilla in sooner land right now.
Tom, I agree that the BCS is the worst thing to happen in college football. Throw the computers out. These algorthims should not anything concerning football. As for the payoffs, the four major bowls always take the top eight teams. Use these bowl games to determine who advances to the next level and proceed like it is a tournament. Or use my choice, no playoffs, use the three major poll systems(humans) and live with it. In my opinion the BCS system is a failure.
The subject of this article could be a contributing factor in all of these upsets this year. The upper echelon teams are worrying about all of this BCS nonsense instead of focusing on the tasks at hand. In my opinion, the BCS is the worst thing to happen in collegiate sports. Something is wrong when a team that cannot win its own conference championship can play for the national championship. Take the top 8 teams at the end of the season and have a three round playoff. Commence it the week after the regular season ends and run it until New Year. Thats so easy the experts cannot conceive it.
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Oklahoma football fans could have two new best friends forever: The Associated Press poll and the Kansas Jayhawks. These two entities might offer the Sooners their best shot at winning a national title.
Here's why AP:
• Let's say OU is No. 3 in the BCS standings on Dec. 2, then wins its bowl game convincingly against a quality opponent.
Let's also say a one-loss team wins the championship game.
If AP voters are less than impressed by the BCS winner, they could vote OU atop their final poll.
Here's why the Jayhawks:
• The Sooners are lagging in the computer component of the BCS standings. Their biggest potential boost would come from beating an unbeaten Kansas team in the Big 12 title game.
"That would really help, and that's what Sooner fans need to be rooting for,” said Richard Billingsley, whose poll is one of six used in the BCS formula.
By John Rohde
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OU also is being hurt by its weak OOC schedule. Miami isn't the good opponent it seemed to be when the game was scheduled, and North Texas and Utah State have one win between them. Shame on OU for even having those two on the schedule.
Finally, OU is being hurt by Big 12 teams like Texas Tech and Kansas who schedule nobody but creampuffs for OOC games. So what if they win them all--they beat nobodies, and the computer rankings reflect that. So the Sooners' strength of schedule is killing them in the computers.
Bottom line is that the Sooners should have taken care of business in Boulder. Then all this hand-wringng would be unnecessary.
Im a die hard OU fan, but were not at the level of the SEC and PAC10 teams period....
If our only loss is to colorado, then its our own fault, that should have never happened.
Bring back Mike Stoops, put Gundy or Heupel at O-Coord, and maybe we will take the next step. Everything is too vanilla in sooner land right now.