Homebuilders' prayers answered — and for homeowners, sellers and Realtors.
Buyer's market or not, homebuyers still are paying more for houses in Oklahoma City and Tulsa, not less, according to the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, which reported the state's two biggest cities as out of step with the rest of the country.
The increase was a pleasant surprise since prices seemed to be trending down at the end of the second quarter, when prices were virtually flat — up a tiny 0.01 percent from the quarter before.
Amid a national drumbeat of doom for housing, Oklahoma is dancing to the beat of its own drum — one full of oil, thanks to the state's thriving energy business. It's good news at a bleak time for many of the nation's homeowners, Realtors, lenders, builders and others who make their living in the single-family housing business.
"Oil is still propping up our economy. Less than a generation ago, but oil is still propping up our economy,” said David Feisal, senior vice president of Tulsa-based SpiritBank and immediate past president of the Oklahoma Mortgage Bankers Association.
"The public thinks we're going to hell in a handbasket. There's a lot of states that are not going to hell in a handbasket,” Feisal said.
Appreciation appreciated
Nationally, prices continued to inch up year to year — 1.8 percent in the third quarter, the slowest growth since 1995, compared with the third quarter of 2006, the federal agency reported Thursday.
Oklahoma City prices increased 4.7 percent from the third quarter of 2006 to the third quarter of this year. Tulsa prices increased 2.02 percent on the quarter and 6.01 percent on the year, according to the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight.
But it's the quarter-to-quarter increase that Feisal said was most impressive, since it shows the most recent trends — and it would amount to nearly 10-percent appreciation if maintained for four quarters.
"I don't think there's any question that our house prices are outpacing the country,” he said.
Builders cutting inventory
The home construction slowdown is partly to thank, McCaleb said. Builders' inventories have gone down, he said.
"The builders I know have really cut back on starts,” he said. "It's a supply-and-demand market. A lot of our bankers are saying, ‘Guys, get out there and sell presolds and don't do so many speculatives.' ”
Through October, Oklahoma City-area builders had cut back about 13 percent compared to the first 10 months of 2006, according to building permit records. Builders in some cities cut back drastically: 40 percent in Norman, 30 percent in Midwest City, 20 percent in Edmond and 8 percent in Oklahoma City.
The inventory of homes for sale on the Multiple Listing Service also decreased slightly last month, to a 5.8-month supply, according to The Oklahoman's calculations based on the latest statistics from the Oklahoma City Metro Association of Realtors.
Oklahoma is not Detroit
"I am very pleased. I listened to quite a bit of news on this yesterday on NPR. They were interviewing lenders and borrowers in Detroit and other areas where things are abysmal. But real estate is local, and we are just not seeing the same difficulties,” said Victoria Caldwell, president of the Realtors association. "So the main message I would give to the public is that while it is very important to know what is happening nationwide, it is even more important to have a good handle on what is happening in the very local market one is investing in.”
Caldwell said Oklahoma housing is out of step with the country as a whole — especially formerly white-hot markets now reeling from burst bubbles — for two main reasons:
"One, we did not have the artificially inflated market growth of many other parts of the country,” she said. "We didn't have people purchasing homes and selling them before they ever were complete. This creates a market where there is no ‘family' to occupy the property. It is purchased solely for the purpose of scraping off the profit prior to finding an actual occupant for the property, whether that is a buyer or a tenant.
"Two, our economy has not had the challenges as in the Detroit and southern Illinois markets (reported) in the radio news story.”
Targeted data available
Consumers can get much more localized information from a Realtor, Caldwell said, because of recent improvements in the Multiple Listing Service.
"These trends can be monitored on a regional basis, such as metro Oklahoma City area, a city basis, such as Edmond, Moore, Norman, The Village — and the immediate subdivision one is investing in. This is something that an experienced Realtor can help with,” she said.
The association, she said, has new tools in the listing available to "accurately describe the condition on the specific market in question, whether getting ready to sell or buy. These new tools track all transactions whether Realtor-assisted or not, including sales between family members.
"This will give a complete picture of the market to our consumer. Then decisions can be made based on accurate information, rather than general national statistics that obviously do not reflect the market conditions in central Oklahoma.”