Fear may cause revenue drop, treasurer says

The apparent exodus of thousands of Hispanics due to fear of Oklahoma's new immigration law could explain the recent drop in sales tax revenue, a top finance official said.

"If it is true that a lot of people left this state because of that bill, as we're hearing anecdotally, then you would expect to see a dip in your sales tax collections,” state Treasurer Scott Meacham said.

"From a state revenue standpoint, there may be an impact.”

The House author of the immigration law, state Rep. Randy Terrill, said the downturn in tax collections was expected.

However, Oklahoma will have a net savings because less money will be given to illegal immigrants or spent on expenses caused by them, he said.

"There appears to be significant anecdotal evidence that illegal aliens are leaving the state of Oklahoma, particularly in the northeast part of the state in and around the Tulsa area” and the Panhandle, Terrill said.

"So certainly there is some indication that House Bill 1804 is having a contingent effect of causing illegal aliens to leave the state of Oklahoma by denying them access to jobs, as well as taxpayer-funded benefits.”

An estimated 100,000 to 250,000 illegal immigrants have been living in Oklahoma, he said.

Sales tax collections fell below last year's collections in October, just as the state began receiving reports of Hispanics leaving Oklahoma because of fears over the immigration law.

House Bill 1804 took effect Nov. 1.

Meacham, who serves as Gov. Brad Henry's Cabinet secretary of revenue and finance, said it will be interesting to note sales tax collections for the next few months to see whether the dip in sales tax collections continues.

The next revenue report on state tax collections is expected Tuesday.

Last month's report showed sales tax collections for September produced $123.7 million for the month of October.

That amount was $400,000, or 0.3 percent, below the same month last year and $6 million, or 4.6 percent, below estimates.

It was only the second time in the past 12 months that sales tax collections failed to exceed the amount of money collected for the same month the previous year.

The earlier downfall in sales tax activity for January was blamed on bad ice storms.

The timing of October's lower-than-expected sales tax collections could be just "coincidental” to the implementation of HB 1804, Meacham said.

Unofficial tallies show that 20,000 to 50,000 Hispanics have left the state in the past couple of months because of fears over HB 1804.

Exact figures are difficult to obtain because it's unknown how many illegal immigrants have been living or continue to live in the state.

The loss of that many people would result in fewer goods — food, clothing and supplies — being bought, Meacha