The Seattle SuperSonics franchise is no longer the only egg in Oklahoma City's basket. The Hornets now have just as good a chance of finding the Ford Center as the Sonics.
Hornets owner George Shinn cleverly added a provision to his lease that mandates his franchise average 14,735 fans from Dec. 1, 2007, through the end of next season or it's free to walk. Judging by the Hornets' poor crowd support thus far, Shinn is in store for a much smoother stroll than Sonics chairman Clay Bennett in his search for Oklahoma City.
How it all plays out we aren't likely to know anytime soon. But here are some of the more likely scenarios:
•Sonics escape their KeyArena lease and move to Oklahoma City next season.
There is a strong possibility the Sonics' federal trial won't begin until fall or winter, which would prevent them from relocating next season. The Sonics could then play here next season only by reaching a buyout agreement with the city of Seattle. And that might not be an option after the Seattle City Council last September passed an ordinance that prevents the city from negotiating a buyout.
•Sonics are held to their lease and move to Oklahoma City in 2010.
This would be practical because of the uncertainty with how the federal court judge will rule on the issue of specific performance. A pertinent question would be are the Sonics owners willing to wait another two years to relocate? And what if an arena deal comes to life by then?
•Sonics are held to their lease, get a new arena and agree to a new lease.
Given the nasty relationship between the two sides, it's hard to imagine this scenario playing out. But from a pure business standpoint, the city of Seattle likely can't afford to pick up the bulk of the tab on yet another state-of-the-art arena.
•Sonics are held to the lease, the team is sold to Seattle-area owners who then get approval for a new arena.
It's happened before in Seattle, back in the mid-1990s when Paul Allen purchased the NFL's Seattle Seahawks from Los Angeles-hungry Ken Behring. Allen contributed $160 million to the $460 million Qwest Field after Behring's $150-million improvements request for the Kingdome was shot down. Bennett has admitted to receiving interest from local owners but maintains that the franchise isn't for sale.
•Hornets make the attendance benchmark and remain in New Orleans.
Not many signs point toward the Hornets averaging 15,000-plus fans over the next 1½ years to bump their already trailing attendance to the needed figure. Sustained on-court success, however, and a nice showing in the playoffs this year could create a spike in next season's crowd flow.
•Hornets miss the attendance benchmark and return to Oklahoma for the 2009-10 season.
Considering the Sonics' cloudy court case, this scenario isn't far-fetched. What's unclear is how will the NBA act if the Board of Governors approves the Sonics relocation to Oklahoma City but the courts then rule they must stay in Seattle until 2010? Shinn also would have to pay up to $100 million to move from New Orleans.
•Hornets miss the attendance benchmark and move to Kansas City for the 2009-10 season.
K.C. has to be a more likely destination for the Hornets than Oklahoma City considering the Sonics' state of affairs. And the move would make sense since the shiny new Sprint Center is waiting on its first major tenant.
•Hornets miss the attendance benchmark, move to Seattle for the 2009-10 season and the Sonics move to Oklahoma for the same season.
The Sonics could call Oklahoma City home in time for the 2009-10 season if their trial isn't expedited but they receive a favorable ruling from the judge. It's unlikely, however, that Hornets owner George Shinn moves to Seattle and settles for the NBA's worst venue.
•Hornets miss the attendance benchmark and Shinn sells the franchise to Bennett and Co. who then move it to OKC.
Shinn is adamant about retaining his franchise, so he doesn't figure to sell anytime soon. And it doesn't appear that he's losing cash by the minute as some predicted he would in New Orleans, which means he might not be forced to sell.
•Sonics stay in Seattle. Hornets stay in New Orleans. Las Vegas and Oklahoma City are awarded expansion franchises.NBA Commissioner David Stern has acknowledged that he's not interested in expansion at this point. Not in this country anyway. But Las Vegas is on the NBA's radar, as evidenced by its hosting of last year's All-Star Game. It figures to be only a matter of time before both cities host permanent NBA teams. Why not through expansion?
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If the Sonics are able to come to OKC, I see Shinn going to the markets that want an NBA team right now. Las Vegas, and K.C. he may even want to go to Seattle but that will not go well at all.
The Hornets are going to remain in New Orleans. George Shinn has expressed ginuine interest in the team and the city of New Orleans the last couple home games since the news of the new deal was made came out in force with 15,000+ the first night and 16,000+ the next home game. It would be different if Shinn said something along the lines of "I dont know why I came back" but he has shown nothing but love for New Orleans his departure is unlikely. Hornets are in the process of re-introducing themselves to the fans. Probably 9 times out of 10 Seattle will lose a franchise and if Sonics leave David Stern said and I quote "I dont see us returning to the Seattle market anytime soon". Dont count on New Orleans being without an NBA team, the chances of it happening are very slim
I don't know how this will play out! I know for sure that the NBA when it is all said and done wants Shinn out of the league. They have done far to much for this owner and many in the League office believe he is not a good NBA Owner. The NBA is not going to give Shinn the Seattle Market. They would prefer Shinn sell to Bennett in OKC and have local ownership buy the Sonics in Seattle and get a new arena built. No franchise swaps will happen involving Shinn!!
Shinn would have to pay New Orleans $20 million to leave, and he would have to pay a relocation fee to the NBA. The remainder of that $100 million would be to buy out Chouet's 25%, not to give to the city of New Orleans. Shinn would have to find another partner to recoup that money, but he could do that and wouldn't have to come up with that cash. It wouldn't necessarily be an unwise move, if he could find a partner who would pay the relocation fee for him, and that's not at all impossible.
Jill, www.okcthunderfans.com - Jan 15, 2008 at 5:25 am
Shinn would have to pay New Orleans 100 million if leaves before the lease is up. Shinn only made 10 million last year in OKC. I don't think this would be a wise move for Shinn. Unless, he's wants to come out even 10 years down the road.
I like this scenario: Oklahoma City votes in favor of the Ford Center improvements, Bennett gets the nod to move the franchise, Bennett signs a letter of intent with Oklahoma City (franchise name is intentionally left blank), the Hornets continue their miserable attendance in N.O. to the point where BEFORE end of 2008 Shinn acknowledges the 14,735 target will not be met, Shinn and Bennett swap franchises in 2009, Bennett moves the Hornets to Oklahoma City for the 2009 season with an already improved Ford Center, Shinn either stays in Seattle (and works arena issue) OR moves to KC/Vegas or even Vancouver BC. Under this scenario, OKC is not a thief yet gets a team in a year, Seattle is given a new owner who might be received better since he "lost" his franchise yet the city is still on notice, Bennett gets to move on with a team who is already established (and market tiered) in OKC, KC and Vegas fight with Seattle for the team or the NBA settles for leaving the franchise in the Pac NW with a move up the street to Vancouver. It'll be interesting and OKC should definitely get a team none-the-less.
I would prefer having the Sonics due to local based ownership.. They will be a little less inclined to move. Shinn is just money hungry like any other NBA owner out there... I would like to have the Hornets though don't get me wrong.
Although I would like to have local ownership, and think Clay Bennett and the other Sonics' owners would be great owners for this community, there are reasons why it might be better if the Hornets were here. I think there might be a lot of bad press associated with moving the Sonics here, and as a basketball fan, I hate to see a team leave Seattle when it has 40 years of history there. If it does, I certainly think we need to change the name, as I don't want sportswriters talking about us like they do the Colts. Any team is going to be good and bad through the years, so I don't think you can look at the players currently on each team and decide which team you'd like for that reason. Players get injured, get traded to other teams and leave for better contracts. I think getting any NBA team would be great for Oklahoma City, and were the Hornets to be the team that moves here, I'd support them as enthusiastically as the Sonics. Or vice versa.
Jill, www.okcthunderfans.com - Jan 14, 2008 at 7:32 am
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Hornets owner George Shinn now has an opt-out clause in his New Orleans lease. By NATE BILLINGS, THE OKLAHOMAN archive
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