How exits affect Oklahoma vote
How exits affect Oklahoma vote
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By Chris Casteel and John Greiner
Published: January 31, 2008
Neither former U.S. Sen. John Edwards nor former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani was expected to win their parties' primaries in Oklahoma on Tuesday, but their exit from the presidential race could change the dynamics of the contests here, supporters and others said.
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Where will Edwards votes go?
Ward Curtin, a volunteer state adviser for Edwards in Oklahoma, said Wednesday that Edwards would have won Democratic delegates, which are allotted proportionately rather than in a winner-take-all format.
"He would have done extremely well,” Curtin said. "He would have earned delegates in every congressional district.”
Curtin said "a lot of people are disappointed” that Edwards withdrew. As late as Tuesday, Edwards told supporters in Tulsa that he was in the race "for the long haul” only to announce his campaign's end the next day.
"The major obstacle was we had trouble getting traction in the national media, but in Oklahoma his voice was breaking through to voters,” Curtin said.
University of Oklahoma political science professor Keith Gaddie said the question now is where Edwards voters go, if anywhere. Though Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., has been leading in the polls in Oklahoma, Edwards has been a close second, with Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., in third.
Edwards has been doing well among white male voters in Southern primaries, Gaddie said.
In Oklahoma, he said, "There's a big undecided (bloc) of white men. I don't know if those guys are going to stay home (on Tuesday) or not.”
Ivan Holmes, chairman of the Oklahoma Democratic Party, said that because Edwards suspended his campaign, rather than officially ending it, he would still be entitled to delegates if he reaches the 15 percent support threshold in a congressional district. Holmes said state party leaders were planning to meet Tuesday night on the matter. Edwards already controls delegates from previous contests in other states that can be released before the party's convention in August.
Giuliani falls victim to ‘bad advice'
Oklahoma City businesswoman Terry Neese, who was national chairman of the Women for Rudy coalition, said most of Giuliani's support in the state would likely swing to U.S. Sen. John McCain, the Arizona Republican who has become the national frontrunner for the GOP nomination. Giuliani endorsed McCain on Wednesday.
McCain has been trailing former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee in polls in Oklahoma, but the senator has gained momentum from his recent victories in South Carolina and Florida that he could carry into Oklahoma.
Gaddie said Wednesday that Huckabee still leads McCain in the latest polling in the state but that McCain has been closing the gap.
In the latest poll, taken about a week ago, he said, Huckabee had nearly 30 percent support and McCain had 25 percent.
Giuliani had only about 9 percent support in that poll, Gaddie said.
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has been running well behind Huckabee and McCain in Oklahoma, Gaddie said.
Neese said she had already cast an absentee ballot for Giuliani in Oklahoma and didn't know whom she would support now.
She and Gaddie said McCain's national security experience would likely help him take Giuliani voters who had been focused on those issues.
Neese said she had campaigned last week for Giuliani in Florida, where he had essentially placed all his bets after skipping the early contests in Iowa and New Hampshire. Neese said his strategy of focusing on Florida was a mistake since he was out of the media spotlight for so long.
"He was a great candidate, a credible candidate,” Neese said. "He worked so hard. I truly believe he had very bad advice.”
Related Topics:
Politics, U.S. Politics, Elections and Voting, Election Campaigns, U.S. Presidential Election
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