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An analysis of recent recruiting classes at OU and OSU shows that highly rated prep players usually have standout careers with their college teams
Analysis shows that highly rated prep players usually have standout college careers

By Jake Trotter

Published: February 10, 2008

Bob Stoops said last week he doesn't pay attention to the star ratings of prospects his staff recruits.

Maybe he should.

An in-depth analysis by The Oklahoman of the last nine Oklahoma and Oklahoma State recruiting classes comprising of more than 440 players revealed that stars do matter.

The higher the star rating was in high school, the more likely the player became a standout in college. Even though many high-profile recruits have failed to pan out, their total is doubled by the ones that do.

For every 4-star flop like Moe Dampeer, there have been two 4-star phenoms like Malcolm Kelly and Curtis Lofton.

For every 4-star dud like Brad Girtman, there have been two 4-star dandies like Tatum Bell and Rashaun Woods.

Stars have never directly resulted in tackles or touchdowns ever since Rivals.com first instituted the popular rating system back in 1999.

Players usually have to earn their way onto the field.

"There is no clear-cut formula to predict who is going to turn out to be the best,” said Jeremy Crabtree, one of eight Rivals analysts who decide on star ratings. "This is a very subjective, difficult mockup job.”

But while subjective and not always accurate, star ratings have proven to be a good indicator as to what kind of players recruits will become in college.

And the statistics support this claim:

Two-thirds of OU's 5-star recruits became full-time starters.

Just one-third of its 4-star recruits became full-time starters.

And only a little more than one-fifth of its 3-star recruits became full-time starters.

This trend holds true in Stillwater, as well:

Better than one-half of OSU's 4-star recruits became full-time starters.

Less than one-quarter of its 3-star recruits became full-time starters.

Not every 5-star recruit, though, becomes an All-American. Not every 2-star prospect sits the bench.

Last season, seven players who were 2-star recruits coming out of high school like Kansas State wide receiver Jordy Nelson and Central Florida running back Kevin Smith made the Associated Press' All-America team.

Only four players who were 5-star recruits did the same.

"You throw the Josh Heupels and the Quentin Griffins, the list goes on and on, the guys we've had here that have been All-Americans that didn't have a lot of stars,” Stoops said. "I think around the country there are a lot of big-star guys that maybe didn't end up that way.”

Since Stoops arrived in Norman nine seasons ago, the Sooners have signed 11 quarterbacks, which included six who had ratings of 4 stars or more.

Heupel, Jason White and Sam Bradford only earned 3 stars, overshadowed by fool's-gold quarterbacks like Tommy Grady, Noah Allen, Brent Rawls and Chase Williams.

Heupel, White and Bradford, however, will go down as three of the most proficient quarterbacks in Sooner history.

"I don't pay attention to it. I never have,” Stoops said. "We look at guys who fit. We don't just recruit guys because of stars. There are plenty of guys with a lot of stars that we're not going to recruit that we don't think fit us.”

OSU has also had its share of players who weren't highly recruited but turned into all-Big-12-caliber players. In fact, seven of the 11 Cowboys on NFL rosters from the past nine classes were2- or 3-star prospects coming out of high school.

Defensive tackle Kevin Williams received only 2 stars.

Now Williams is a perennial NFL All-Pro with the Minnesota Vikings.

Offensive tackles Charlie Johnson and Corey Hilliard also received only 2-star ratings.

Now both are with the Indianapolis Colts.

Tight end Brandon Pettigrew, a 2-star recruit, earned first-team all-Big 12 honors last season and could be the first tight end taken in the 2009 NFL draft.

In contrast, the three most ballyhooed Cowboy recruits of the last decade haven't panned out.

Defensive lineman Lance Carson, OSU's only 5-star recruit, never made it to the playing field because of academic issues.

Four-star defensive tackle Xavier Lawson-Kennedy, who delighted the Cowboy faithful when he committed to the Pokes on regional television, finished his injury-ridden tenure at OSU last season with just one career sack.

And finally 4-star quarterback Bobby Reid, perhaps OSU's most hyped recruit ever, lost his starting job this past season to 3-star backup Zac Robinson.

"A lot of people get caught up in ratings and stars, but we all know if you look back four or five years it's really hard to tell how they will pan out,” OSU coach Mike Gundy said. "For example in this recent class, we'll know a lot more during the 2010 season how successful we were bringing in this group."

Carson, Lawson-Kennedy and Reid, however, are exceptions to the trend dating back to the advent of the star-rating system.

Since then, 9 of OSU's 11 first-team all-conference performers were either 3- or 4-star recruits, including safety Chris Massey, wide receiver Adarius Bowman and running back Dantrell Savage.

The best prospects usually turn out to be the best players in Norman, too.

In the last five years, 14 Sooners have earned All-American honors. Only White had fewer than 4 stars.

Mike Baldwin contributed to this report.

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