Dreaming of the Dance Odds are long, but Cowboys hope strong finish will mean NCAA bid Odds are long, but Cowboys hope strong finish will mean NCAA bid
The questions surrounding Oklahoma State men's basketball have changed dramatically. In the wake of three straight wins, including the Cowboys' 61-60 upset of Kansas on Saturday, the discussion is not about coach Sean Sutton's job security. It's about the bubble. Yes, the NCAA tournament bubble.
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Two weeks ago, when the Cowboys were 11-12 overall and 2-7 in the Big 12, it didn't look like OSU had a shot at the NIT or the CBI or any other tournament someone might throw together in March.
While the NCAA tournament is still a longshot for OSU — now sitting at 14-12 and 5-7 — it's now a debatable issue.
That is, debatable given the following scenario:
If Oklahoma State can win out, starting with tonight's game at Missouri (15-12, 5-7), it will go to Kansas City for the Big 12 Tournament with a 9-7 Big 12 record (19-12 overall). That's no gimme as the Cowboys also have to beat Nebraska and Oklahoma at home and Texas in Austin on Senior Night to make that happen.
But for argument's sake, let's say Byron Eaton and the Cowboys pull it off. With two wins in the conference tournament, OSU finishes with a 21-13 record and a top 50 RPI.
What are OSU's chances if that happens?
Here's what the Cowboys have going for them in that scenario:
A strong finish. The NCAA tournament selection committee has always given extra consideration to the last 10 games of the season. This year, chairman Tom O'Connor said that will be expanded to the last 12 games. If the above scenario plays out, OSU would be 8-4 over its last 12 games, including several wins over highly ranked teams.
Mid-major mediocrity. Several conferences that have had multiple teams into the tournament in recent years do not look like they will get more than one at-large bid. Those include the Missouri Valley, Horizon and Conference USA, all of which will likely wind up with just one or two teams in. That The Cowboys have 21 wins, which is historically more than enough to get into the tournament.
Here's what the Cowboys have going against them in that scenario:
They lack a quality non-conference win. No, LSU and Washington don't count. Both are at the bottom of their respective conferences.
They have 13 losses. This is when the North Texas and Oral Roberts losses, along with the trio of Texas, Texas A&M and Oklahoma, that keeps Sutton awake at night. History shows that getting into the tournament with 12 losses is a lot easier than getting in with 13.
Of course, all of this is idle speculation if OSU doesn't keep winning.
"That's all there is to it,” Eaton said. "We've just gotta ignore everything else and keep winning.”
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I'm sure all you experts are right. OSU has about as much chance of beating Texas in Austin as they have of beating Kansas. Oh wait-- they already did that.
I will forever hate Tennessee for that dirty undercut put on Dove. I thought that was the most ridiculous no-call I have ever seen. By the way, let us not forget that the NCAA looks STRONGLY at the last 12 games of the season. In those OSU has beaten 3 top 30 teams. With tonight's win over Mizzou I really believe this team has turned the corner. First things first, though. Nebraska is coming up and you can't look any farther than that otherwise OSU will miss the tournament.
Well - we won a Missouri. I think we can get by the UofO and NU. I think Texas will win in Austin unless they mail it in. I would rather have a couple of wins in the NIT than a drubbing in the NCAA. Of course if this team starts playing IBA/Sutton defense - we could win out. Marcus got his first double-double! Damn that dirty Tennessee undercut!
as an oklahoma state fan, i'm going to have to go with history and say not a chance. why even write about it. seriously, waste of time. i would be suprised if they win just a few of their final games. probably get destroyed by missouri tonight and it will be all down hill from there.
Maybe I'm missing something, but if OSU wins out in the regular season, wouldn't we likely receive a first-round bye in the Big 12 tournament?
Personally, I think the Pokes are more likely to WIN the Big 12 Tournament, and receive the corresponding auto berth, than to get into the tournament any other way.
Patrick, don't get me wrong, I think we will win it. But it is bedlam. I think we will win out besides Texas if we can play up to our potential. We will then see how far they can get in the Big 12 tourny, I am hoping for the best, but not expecting us to make the NCAA tourny this year. We shall see!
I just don't think we have the respect from the selection committee that other teams do. Everyone thought we had a shot to get in the tourney last year, and we didn't. And yet there are schools like Arizona who are still considered "locks" and they have multiple bad losses. I just don't see it happening, unless we win the Big XII tourney, which would be close to impossible. But if the chance of getting into the big dance is what is motivating the team, I'll go with it. They are a fun team to watch finally and anything can happen.
Sax-Although I'm a little more optimistic about winning the Bedlam game than you, overall I agree. It's probably just too much of a stretch this year. Even if we win 3 of 4 regular season, we will still be middle of the pack in conference. So, if we win our first tournament game the second game would likely be either Texas or....KU. In KC. Ouch. Then there's the whole thing of having to win 4 games in 4 days to win the tournament.
It would be great if we could take about the dance, but I am going to assume this will not happen. Some bad losses (Iowa State, Illinois, etc.) won't help and we would HAVE to win out. This would include a win at Texas (which won't happen) and a bedlam win (which will be tough, its a rivalary game) We will see what happens. But I am looking forward to next season!
Kyle-I'm not saying OSU is going to get to the dance either, but 2 weeks ago you would have said OSU winning at A&M and beating KU were far-fetched as well. That said, we do have a long way to go and winning at Austin will be very difficult. Too bad we let the game with Texas at home get away.
Andrea, According to your scenario (OSU wins out and wins 2 games in the Big 12 tourney) OSU will be 10-2 in their last 12 games not 8-4. They are currently 4-1 in the last five games. 4 more games remaining would make it 8-1. 2 wins and a loss in the Big 12 makes it 10-2. So according to your scenario OSU will finish stronger and could make a case to slip in. BUT, lets not get ahead of ourselves. We need to beat Mizzou tonight first.
i dont think we have a legit shot at getting into the tournament but i am just glad that we are finally playing better and hope we can finish strong like weve been playing the last few games. I hope to make a little run in the big 12 tourny and carry some momentum into next year.. it would be great to get into the big dance but i think its a long shot because we played our way out of it the first 2/3 of the season..
Let's not forget that OSU finally won their first road conference game in two years. They are playing very well right now, but beating Texas at Texas is far-fetched. The Cowboys tried to give the game away in the last 5 minutes against Kansas and were lucky to hang on. Beating Texas at Texas would take their very best effort. I think OSU will finish the season fairly strong and host another NIT game.
I'm not close to thinking of the NCAA for the Pokes. It's just unrealistic at this point. Let's take one game at a time and see what happens. To go from hoping for a .500 season to talking about March Madness makes my head hurt.
Andrea, for OSU to end the season 21-13, it would mean winning THREE games in the Big12 Tourney.
OSU has a great shot of getting into the Tourney if OSU is playing on Sunday's Big12 Championship game. It has been demonstrated many times that just getting to Sunday Conference championship games usually gets you into the Big Dance. If OSU wins out, wins 3 games in the Big12 Tourney and is playing for the Big12 Championship on Sunday - THEY ARE IN.
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OSU head coach Sean Sutton can stop worrying about his job for now and concentrate on a strong finish. by MATT STRASEN, THE OKLAHOMAN
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Personally, I think the Pokes are more likely to WIN the Big 12 Tournament, and receive the corresponding auto berth, than to get into the tournament any other way.
OSU has a great shot of getting into the Tourney if OSU is playing on Sunday's Big12 Championship game. It has been demonstrated many times that just getting to Sunday Conference championship games usually gets you into the Big Dance. If OSU wins out, wins 3 games in the Big12 Tourney and is playing for the Big12 Championship on Sunday - THEY ARE IN.