Oklahoma City Thunder may take a step back in 2010-11

Collison proved prophetic in truth but not in spirit. The Thunder gained 27 victories, rising from 23 to 50, creating a tremor that rumbles into this season.

National pundits declare the Thunder the next great team. City fathers map out routes for championship parades. Thunder fans settle in for a decade-long cruise to NBA glory.

But before Oklahoma City starts taking aim at Titletown, USA, let's go back to St. Nick. He fundamentally was right. Progress is tough to come by in the NBA. Championships are not awarded, they are earned. Hard-earned.

Which is why the Thunder might not continue their meteoric rise in Year 3 in OKC. Why the Thunder could, egads, fall back into 40-something wins. In fact, I'm picking 49 victories, because no way can the Thunder have the health it had a year ago.

"Odds are, probably not," Collison said. "Pretty unprecedented run of health."

Four Boomers started all 82 games, and Nenad Krstic started 76. Things didn't turn out that well on Marcus Welby.

But even if the Thunder avoids injury, there's no guarantee this young team keeps posting advanced win totals.

This is a league of patience. Take two steps up, one step back. A step forward, a step sideways, another step forward, a step back. That's the way it is.

And just because the Thunder took about 68 steps forward last season is no reason to believe it is immune to the other laws of NBA physics.