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This is your first warning: at 7 p.m. Sunday, Feb. 10, I will be live-blogging the 50th Annual Grammy Awards, analyzing the reasons for each win, critiquing live performances and being that cranky guy that shows up at every awards show watch party, except you don’t have to feed me beer and chips and I go home without having to be told.

I encourage all regular and new readers to chime in with comments during the event — we’ll make it a town hall meeting that has nothing to do with war or the cost of health care. After all, the Grammys are about many things, but “change” isn’t one of them.

The big question being bandied in the entertainment press is whether Wino wins Best New Artist. EW is suggesting that country singer Taylor Swift might pull an upset, mainly because she can be reasonably expected not to vomit on anything.

But my position is that Best New Artist is the absolute last Grammy that anyone would want.

The track record is atrocious for people who win this thing – it’s career death. I think most of the winners end up on an island with Matthew Fox and Evangeline Lilly and are never heard from again, so if you’re against the mainstreaming of your favorite indie act and consequently you’re sick of Feist, root for her to collect a gramophone this year.