Our man John Rohde blogged about the effect of the Spurs-Nuggets game Wednesday night on the Thunder. You can read that here. Interesting stuff, and within that blog was the playoff probabilities as determined by basketball-reference, which you can read here.
You know me. I love that stuff. I’ve been doing playoff probabilities the last couple of weeks, just using my own schedule analysis. But basketball-reference has done some of the work for me. For example, it gives the Spurs a 54.2 percent chance to win the West’s top seed, leaving the Thunder with a 45.8 percent chance. That all changes, of course, if Denver wins Wednesday night. But for now, seems like solid numbers.
And likewise, basketball-reference gives the Lakers a 63 percent chance of getting the eighth seed, leaving Utah with a 33.1 percent chance and the Mavericks with a 3.9 percent chance.
The only thing basketball-reference doesn’t provide is the percent chance for Golden State and Utah to secure the sixth seed over the other. So just eyeballing, I’ll give the Warriors a 55 percent chance. Golden State has a one-game lead, the Rockets have an easier schedule and the tiebreaker. So that’s pretty close. So we’ll call it 55-45.
With those numbers at our disposal, here are the percentage chances for the Thunder’s first-round playoff matchup:
OKC-Houston: 29.8 percent.
OKC-Lakers: 28.8 percent.
OKC-Golden State: 24.4 percent
OKC-Utah: 15.2 percent.
OKC-Dallas: 1.8 percent.
Every night changes the percentages, so stay stuned.