Berry Tramel


Oklahoma City Thunder: Updated playoff probabilities

by Berry Tramel Modified: April 10, 2013 at 4:35 pm •  Published: April 10, 2013

Our man John Rohde blogged about the effect of the Spurs-Nuggets game Wednesday night on the Thunder. You can read that here. Interesting stuff, and within that blog was the playoff probabilities as determined by basketball-reference, which you can read here.

You know me. I love that stuff. I’ve been doing playoff probabilities the last couple of weeks, just using my own schedule analysis. But basketball-reference has done some of the work for me. For example, it gives the Spurs a 54.2 percent chance to win the West’s top seed, leaving the Thunder with a 45.8 percent chance. That all changes, of course, if Denver wins Wednesday night. But for now, seems like solid numbers.

And likewise, basketball-reference gives the Lakers a 63 percent chance of getting the eighth seed, leaving Utah with a 33.1 percent chance and the Mavericks with a 3.9 percent chance.

The only thing basketball-reference doesn’t provide is the percent chance for Golden State and Utah to secure the sixth seed over the other. So just eyeballing, I’ll give the Warriors a 55 percent chance. Golden State has a one-game lead, the Rockets have an easier schedule and the tiebreaker. So that’s pretty close. So we’ll call it 55-45.

With those numbers at our disposal, here are the percentage chances for the Thunder’s first-round playoff matchup:

OKC-Houston: 29.8 percent.

OKC-Lakers: 28.8 percent.

OKC-Golden State: 24.4 percent

OKC-Utah: 15.2 percent.

OKC-Dallas: 1.8 percent.

Every night changes the percentages, so stay stuned.



by Berry Tramel
Berry Tramel, a lifelong Oklahoman, sports fan and newspaper reader, joined The Oklahoman in 1991 and has served as beat writer, assistant sports editor, sports editor and columnist. Tramel grew up reading four daily newspapers — The...
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