Playing The Odds With OKC

The online gambling Web site Bodog.com has released a variety of odds for the 2009-10 NBA season. I’m not a betting man, but there is some very interesting material about the probability of how the Thunder and some of its players will do this season.

Kevin Durant
Over/Under: 27.5 PPG
Over/Under: 6.9 RPG
(I’m taking the under on points and a push on rebounds.)

Russell Westbrook
Over/Under: 16.3 PPG
Over/Under: 6.0 APG
(Give me the under on points, barely, and the over on assists.)

Jeff Green
Over/Under: 17.4 PPG
Over/Under: 6.8 PPG
(Again, I’m going under on points and I’ll take the over on rebounds.)

James Harden
Over/Under: 12.0 PPG.
(Sounds close to me. I’ll go 12.4)

Odds to win the 2010 NBA championship
Lakers: 2/1
Thunder: 100/1
Sacramento: 150/1

Odds to win the Western Conference
Lakers: 2/3
Thunder: 50/1
Sacramento: 60/1

NBA Regular Season Win Totals
Lakers: 62.5 wins.
Cavs: 61.5 wins.
Thunder: 34.5 wins.
Kings: 23.5 wins.
(I’ve penciled the Thunder in for 34 wins. I’m feeling a little better about my prediction.)

What Team Will Improve The Most In The Number Of Wins From Their Total From The 2008-09 Season?
Wizards: 3/2
Clippers: 2/1
Thunder: 5/2
Field: 9/5
(From my conversations, these three teams seem to be the consensus around the league to be the most improved clubs.)

Odds To Win The 2009-10 NBA Regular Season MVP
LeBron James: 11/4
Kobe Bryant: 3/1
Dwyane Wade: 5/1
Dwight Howard: 9/1
Chris Paul: 10/1
Kevin Durant: 30/1
(Some of the notable names Durant is ahead of: Amare Stoudemire, Steve Nash, Pau Gasol, Vince Carter, Shaq and Joe Johnson. He’s tied with Gilbert Arenas and Chris Bosh.)

Odds To Win The 2009-10 NBA Rookie Of The Year Award
Blake Griffin: 5/6
Stephen Curry: 5/1
Jonny Flynn: 6/1
Tyreke Evans: 6/1
James Harden: 7/1
(I’ve also got Griffin winning this trophy, although I think Evans will have a better season. Griffin, because the Clippers are scheduled to have eight nationally televised games (tied with Curry’s Warriors), will receive the most attention of any other rookie in the race because he’s the No. 1 overall pick. And he’s a highlight waiting to happen. Any time he dunks, swats a shot or dives into the stands for a loose ball  it’s going to be shown on SportsCenter 20 times a night. That kind of attention is going to sway voters who aren’t paying attention to anything but the nightly highlights.)

Blake Griffin
Over/Under: 16.6 PPG
Over/Under: 8.2 RPG
(I don’t want to underestimate Griffin, but those would be awfully impressive numbers. Especially for a rookie. One who is expected to come off the bench to start the season. On a stacked team. In the Western Conference. I’m going under on both, but especially the points.)