A week ago, I picked Georgia Tech over Kansas as my lock.
Then proceeded to catch holy you-know-what about it.
“Oh, that’s such an easy pick,” you cried.
Apparently, we were all wrong.
Georgia Tech not only failed to cover but also failed to win. Kansas redeemed itself after an embarrassing opening loss to North Dakota State with an upset.
(Note to everyone who said my pick was easy: there is no such thing as an easy lock. Period.)
So where locks are concerned, my record is now 1-1. I like my chances to be 2-1 by this time next week. Here’s why:
Florida is a 16 1/2-point favorite at Tennessee.
That’s a big spread no matter what the circumstances. I know that Tennessee hasn’t exactly set the world on fire just yet, beating hapless Tennessee-Martin 50-0 in the opener, then getting obliterated at home by Oregon 48-13.
But I like the Ducks. I thought they would go to Knoxville and win big. Maybe not that bit, but still, I never thought that was a game the Vols would win.
And I don’t think they’ll win this week either, but I also don’t think they’ll get blown out.
That’s because Florida is not Florida of old. The Gators are 2-0 with wins over Miami (Ohio) 34-12 and South Florida 38-14, but both of those games had anxious moments. Florida didn’t play well against Miami (Ohio) and didn’t pull away from South Florida until late.
Maybe Week 3 is where the Gators turn a big corner.
But I don’t see it.
I like Florida to win, but I don’t like the Gators enough to pick them to win by double digits.