National Retail Federation releases optimistic holiday forecast

The National Retail Federation on Tuesday released its most optimistic holiday sales forecast since the recession. The group predicts retail sales to rise 4.1 percent this year to $586.1 billion. Last year, retail sales rose 5.6 percent.

Indicators such as consumer confidence, consumer credit, disposable personal income and previous monthly sales are used to make the prediction. Weather is a wild card and could also impact sales, says Jack Kleinhenz, chief economist for the federation.

Also in the report:

Online sales are predicted to increase by 12 percent to as much as $96 billion;

Seasonal employment is expected to remain steady, with retailers hiring between 585,000 and 625,000 workers this holiday season (compared to 607,500 last year.)