Make a Prediction!

Ok, first: No Democratic presidential candidate has carried Oklahoma since 1964, when LBJ got 56 percent of the vote against Goldwater.

Here are the results in Oklahoma since then (I’ve left out some of the Independents):

1968: Nixon, 48 percent; Humphrey, 22 percent, George Wallace, 20 percent (!)

1972: Nixon, 74 percent; McGovern, 24 percent

1976: Ford, 50 percent; Carter, 49 percent (Didn’t realize this one was so close; about 13,000 votes)

1980: Reagan, 60.5 percent; Carter, 35 percent

1984: Reagan, 69 percent; Mondale, 31 percent

1988: Bush, 58 percent; Dukakis, 41 percent

1992: Bush, 42 percent; Clinton, 34 percent; Ross Perot, 23 percent

1996: Dole, 48 percent; Clinton, 40 percent; Perot, 11 percent

2000: Bush, 60 percent; Gore, 38 percent

2004: Bush, 66 percent; Kerry, 34 percent

So, given the state’s history in the last 44 years, how do you think McCain and Obama do on Tuesday in Oklahoma?

OU Political Science Prof. Keith Gaddie says McCain gets somewhere between 61 and 64 percent and Obama gets between 36 and 39 percent.

Former state Democratic Party chairman _ and Democratic fundraiser _ Mike Turpen says it will be closer than 60-40.

U.S. Rep. Tom Cole, R-Moore, who held numerous political positions at the state and national level and is now chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, says McCain gets 65 percent or more.

What say you?