The Sooners seem headed for the Alamo Bowl, win or lose. But you never know.
The Cowboys, if they win Bedlam, are headed for the Fiesta Bowl but could fall to a variety of ports with a loss.
So here are the bowl scenarios with two Big 12 games left: OU at OSU and Texas at Baylor.
IF OSU & BAYLOR WIN
Fiesta Bowl: OSU automatic.
Sugar Bowl: Baylor has a chance, if Northern Illinois loses to Bowling Green. It also would help if Ohio State beats Michigan State and drops the Spartans out of the BCS top 14; Michigan State currently is 10th. Clemson and an SEC team are virtual locks for two of the four at-large berths. So is Northern Illinois with a win. So the last berth or two will come from the Big Ten, Big 12 or Pac-12.
Cotton Bowl: Baylor, if it doesn’t make the BCS. Baylor would be 11-1. OU would be 9-3. Texas would be 8-4. If Baylor makes the BCS, OU likely would return to the Cotton. The Cotton doesn’t mind teams making consecutive trips.
Alamo Bowl: OU, virtually automatic, unless Baylor makes the BCS. The Sooners never have played in the San Antonio bowl. If Baylor makes the BCS and OU the Cotton, Kansas State could jump ahead of Texas, since the Longhorns were in the Alamo last season.
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl: Texas, by default, not that the folks in Phoenix mind.
Holiday Bowl: Kansas State, unless it makes it to San Antonio. Texas Tech is the backup plan for San Diego.
Texas Bowl: Texas Tech, unless Baylor makes the Sugar Bowl. Then the Houston bowl is scrambling for another team.
IF OSU & TEXAS WIN
Fiesta Bowl: OSU automatic.
Cotton Bowl: Probably Texas. The Longhorns would be 9-3, with an 8-1 conference finish. Texas vs. an SEC team would be quite marketable. Some bowls are squeamish about taking teams undergoing coaching changes, so Mack Brown’s status could give bowls pause.
Alamo Bowl: Tough decision between Baylor, which would be 10-2, and OU, 9-3. Baylor was in the Alamo in 2011.
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl: Whoever gets passed over for the Alamo, Baylor or OU, would fall to Tempe.
Holiday Bowl: Kansas State.
Texas Bowl: Texas Tech.
IF OU & BAYLOR WIN
Sugar: The Sooners aren’t out of the picture. If Northern Illinois loses, OU could enter the Sugar Bowl discussion.
Cotton: If OU makes the Sugar, OSU would be in the Cotton. If OU didn’t make the Sugar, the Cotton would have a choice between the Bedlam rivals, both 10-2. The choice could come down to which SEC team is sent to JerryWorld. OU-South Carolina or OSU-LSU would be appealing to the Cotton. Auburn or Missouri are more neutral.
Alamo: If OU doesn’t make the Sugar, then whichever Bedlam team doesn’t make the Cotton would go to San Antonio. If OU makes the Sugar, the Alamo might take Kansas State over Texas, since the ‘Horns were in San Antonio last year.
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl: If OU doesn’t make the Sugar, then Texas is here. If OU makes the Sugar, it’s either Texas or KSU, depending on who the Alamo selected.
Holiday: Kansas State, if OU doesn’t make the Sugar. If OU makes the Sugar, Texas Tech.
Texas Bowl: Tech, if OU doesn’t make the Sugar. Otherwise, the Houston bowl is scrambling.
IF OU & TEXAS WIN
Fiesta Bowl: Texas.
Sugar Bowl: OU’s chief competitor for a berth could be 10-2 Oregon, if Northern Illinois loses.
Cotton Bowl: If OU doesn’t make the Sugar, the Cotton would have an interesting choice among three 10-2 teams – OSU, OU and Baylor.
Alamo Bowl: San Antonio would want OU, but the Sooners could be gone. The Alamo likely would take OSU over Baylor, but you never know.
Buffalo Wild Wings: If OU made the Sugar, Kansas State is probably here. Otherwise, Tempe just takes whoever’s left among OSU and Baylor.
Holiday Bowl: Kansas State, unless the ‘Cats go to the Wild Wings. Then Tech.
Texas Bowl: Tech, unless OU makes the BCS. Then the Red Raiders would be in San Diego.
Fiesta: If Northern Illinois beats Bowling Green on Friday night in the Mid-American championship game, the Huskies qualify for the BCS and almost surely will be in the Fiesta Bowl, which gets last pick among the BCS bowls. If Northern Illinois loses, then the Fiesta still will be stuck with the American Conference champ, either Central Florida or Cincinnati.
Sugar: The Big 12 remains at least in the discussion for sending an at-large team to New Orleans. Awaiting could be anybody from Alabama to Central Florida.
Cotton: The SEC will send a rep to JerryWorld. Could be the Auburn-Missouri loser. Or could be South Carolina. But most likely, LSU.
Alamo: The Pac-12’s No. 2 team will be here, but Oregon could make the BCS. That would put the Arizona State-Stanford loser in San Antonio. Unless the Alamo picked UCLA or Southern Cal over Arizona State.
Buffalo Wild Wings:Nebraska seems like the best bet, though Michigan and Iowa remain possibilities.
Holiday Bowl: Arizona State is the best bet, though Southern Cal is a possibility.
Texas Bowl: Minnesota is the likely team. Michigan or Iowa could drop here, if the Big Ten doesn’t get two teams in the BCS.
Fiesta Bowl: OSU vs. Northern Illinois
Cotton Bowl: Baylor vs. LSU
Alamo Bowl: OU vs. Oregon
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl: Texas vs. Nebraska
Holiday Bowl: Kansas State vs. Arizona State
Texas Bowl: Texas Tech vs. Minnesota