The chasm between the two studies can be explained by Milliman's charge, which is to deliver a worst-case scenario, said David Roos, executive director of Covering Kids and Families of Indiana. The IHA study was able to account for the other side of the equation, he said, by assessing the benefits of an expansion.
"They're not caught in the conflict that Milliman is, it really does gets paid for warning states what's the worst possible scenario," Roos said. "So they're coming at it from two very different points of view."
New Gov. Mike Pence budgeted for that "woodwork effect" but did not include any money in the state's next two-year, $29 billion budget for an expansion. He has, however, said he would sign off on an expansion via the Healthy Indiana Plan, as Miller has proposed.
Senate Appropriations Chairman Luke Kenley, R-Noblesville, said he is supporting Miller's plan to expand HIP.
"One of the big issues here is that no matter what you think the cost is, it's clear there are going to be significantly more state dollars that's going to go into this program," said Kenley, who will have to sign off on any type of expansion for it to be successful. "And we would like to have some control over the expenditure of our own state dollars to try to develop a good medical plan that will get to the right people, and give them the right services at the right cost."