WASHINGTON — Perhaps it was the “fog of simulation.” But the scariest aspect of a U.S.-Iran war game staged last week was the way each side miscalculated the other's responses — and moved toward war even as the players thought they were choosing restrained options.
The Iran exercise was organized by Kenneth Pollack, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution's Saban Center for Middle East Policy. It included former top U.S. officials as Washington policymakers, and prominent Iranian-American experts playing Tehran's hand.
The bottom line: The game showed how easy it was for each side to misread the other's signals. And these players were separated by a mere corridor in a Washington think tank, rather than half a world away.
Misjudgment was the essence of this game: Each side thought it was choosing limited options, but their moves were interpreted as crossing red lines. Attacks proved more deadly than expected; signals were not understood; attempts to open channels of communication were ignored; the desire to look tough compelled actions that produced results neither side wanted.
The game was set in July 2013, with some broad assumptions: It was assumed that President Obama had been re-elected, the P5+1 negotiations remained deadlocked and Israel hadn't launched a unilateral attack.
The game controllers added some spicy details: assassinations of Iranian scientists were continuing; and the U.S., Israel and Britain were developing a new cyber weapon to disrupt power to Iran's nuclear and military facilities. Even so, the Iranian supreme leader thought America was a paper tiger, telling aides: “The Americans are tired of the fight and they are led by a weak man with no stomach for the struggle.”
Meanwhile, Iran was pushing ahead with its nuclear program; it had a rough design for a weapon and in three to four months would have enough highly enriched uranium to make two bombs.
The action started on July 6 with an Iranian terror operation: A bomb destroyed a tourist hotel in Aruba, killing 137 people, many of them Americans.
The U.S. team recommended strong retaliatory moves to signal Iran that it had crossed an “unacceptable threshold.” The U.S. bombed a Revolutionary Guards camp in eastern Iran; launched a cyber attack that disrupted power at 40 Iranian security facilities; and warned Iranian operatives in 38 countries that they were known and vulnerable. U.S. military leaders in the game complained that these calibrated moves were halfway measures.