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Hazardous weather outlook, National Weather Service, Norman Forecast Office

by Bryan Painter Published: August 15, 2013

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
THU AUG 15 2013

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THU AUG 15 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN…WESTERN…
CENTRAL…AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA…AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT…

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK… THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS AND THE WESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
IS GENERALLY WEST OF A MEDFORD…TO CHICKASHA…TO WICHITA
FALLS…TO SEYMOUR TEXAS LINE.  

DISCUSSION… ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE 
OVER PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA.
THESE STORMS ARE NOT LIKELY TO BECOME SEVERE.

A GREATER CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN
PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW OF WARM MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE
AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN COLORADO TODAY. COOL
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM WYOMING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A STRONGLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY EARLY EVENING AIDED BY THE
APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AIDED BY THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION. HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE AND WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS…ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 6 PM AND 2 AM. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL DIMINISH.

PROBABILITY TABLE…
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRIDAY AUG 16.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE 
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA…100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR…80 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER… HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY…

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING…
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
WHERE STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
NONE.


by Bryan Painter
Assistant Local Editor
Bryan Painter, assistant local editor, has 31 years’ experience in journalism, including 22 years with the state's largest newspaper, The Oklahoman. In that time he has covered such events as the April 19, 1995 bombing of the Alfred P. Murrah...
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