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Hazardous weather outlook, National Weather Service, Norman Forecast Office

by Bryan Painter Published: August 15, 2013

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
513 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013

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513 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN…WESTERN…
CENTRAL…AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA…AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE…TONIGHT…

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND THE WESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION…
THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS IS GENERALLY WEST OF A STILLWATER…
TO SHAWNEE AND ARDMORE OKLAHOMA LINE.  

TIMING…
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 2 AM.

IMPACTS…
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS AND WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH. HEAVY RAIN
COULD ALSO LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS…
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS
THE RISK AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

DISCUSSION…
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER
THE AREA AND THE FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR MEANS THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL
LIKELY BE SEVERE PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS AND WIND
GUSTS TO 60 MPH. HEAVY RAINFALL COULD ALSO LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING OF
LOW-LYING AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET.

LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY… ONE OR MORE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. LATE THIS
AFTERNOON A COMPLEX OF STORMS WAS DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS
COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH ARRIVE IN PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATER THIS EVENING. ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS COULD ALSO
DEVELOP IN PARTS OF WESTERN KANSAS AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING.
THIS COMPLEX SHOULD MAINLY AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 35
LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND FLASH
FLOODING WILL BECOME A BIGGER CONCERN WITH THESE COMPLEXES. HOWEVER… LARGE
HAIL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
MORNING BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

PROBABILITY TABLE…
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRIDAY AUG 16.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE 
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA…100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR…100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING…AND FLOODING OF CREEKS…
STREAMS…AND DRAINAGE AREAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA…AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY…

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING…
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
NONE.

by Bryan Painter
Assistant Local Editor
Bryan Painter, assistant local editor, has 31 years’ experience in journalism, including 22 years with the state's largest newspaper, The Oklahoman. In that time he has covered such events as the April 19, 1995 bombing of the Alfred P. Murrah...
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