"The government did not overreact,” said University of Michigan flu expert Dr. Arnold Monto, echoing Osterholm’s point.
Whether it will stay quiet for the rest of the winter is hard to say, but some experts are beginning to lean that way.
A poll released Friday by the Harvard School of Public Health found that 44 percent of Americans believe the outbreak is over.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released numbers Friday showing most states continued to have only occasional flu activity last week. However, only three states had absolutely no reports, and a CDC official cautioned that swine flu is still around and is likely to keep infecting people for weeks or months to come.
"We don’t seem to be seeing the disappearance of this virus,” said the official, Dr. Anne Schuchat.
An estimated 70 million Americans have been vaccinated against swine flu through a government campaign that started in October. Counting those who have already been infected and others who were vaccinated, perhaps 40 percent of the public has some immunity to the virus. However, , this is a global disease that can move quickly through air travel, and much of the rest of the world is not vaccinated, Osterholm pointed out.