Oklahoma job growth drops in survey
October data in report on regional economic, business factors shows poor outlook for state
BY DEBBIE BLOSSOM
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Published: November 3, 2009
For a second straight month an Oklahoma economic indicator depicted lackluster growth, in part from the state’s weakened manufacturing sector and a year of job losses.
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The Mid-America survey also covers Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota and South Dakota. The survey also included business leaders who said they expect holiday sales to decline by 1.6 percent from last year, a big drop from a normal holiday season which would see a 6 percent sales growth, Goss said. The survey’s overall index in all nine states dropped to 51.8 from September’s 56.2, and the employment index also dipped in October, to 50 from September’s 52.1.
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The October Mid-
America Business Conditions Index, the monthly survey of supply managers that gauges the state’s business conditions, put Oklahoma below growth neutral, with the index expanding only slightly to 46.9 from September’s 45.0.
Overall readings included new orders at 51.2, production at 48.2, inventories at 34.5 and employment at 54.0. An index above 50 indicates an expanding economy.
The strong dollar has hurt the state’s energy and farm sector, said
Omaha-based
Creighton University economist
Ernie Goss, who oversees the survey. But Goss acknowledged with the recent upswing in oil prices, "things will be more positive in 2010,” he said.
Despite the state’s comparatively low unemployment — and positive national recognition for the economic stability of its two largest cities —
Oklahoma City’s and
Tulsa’s strengths have not carried over into rural areas hurt by manufacturing slowdowns, Goss said.
Since the national recession began in December 2007, Oklahoma has lost 2 percent of its employment with all of the loss occurring since October 2008.
"Even though the state’s unemployment rate has recently dipped, based on our surveys over the past several months, I expect the state’s jobless rate to climb by another 0.4 percent by the end of the year,” he said.
Goss’ predictions echoes what some Oklahoma economists have said for months.
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