Norman storm center gave warning

By Johnny Johnson

Published: February 7, 2008

Six days before the deadly storms swept across Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, Arkansas and Indiana, meteorologists at the National Storm Prediction Center in Norman identified weather patterns that would be favorable for severe weather, according to warning coordination meteorologist Greg Carbin.

Oklahoma meteorologists played a major role in warning people before the outbreak, which spawned dozens of tornadoes across the six states Tuesday and Wednesday, injuring hundreds and killing at least 55 people — one of the 15 worst tornado death tolls since 1950.

On the top 20 list of most deadly tolls for tornadoes, the May 3, 1999, outbreak's 46 deaths ranks 16th.

An Oklahoma meteorologist headed to Arkansas on Wednesday hoping to play a role in helping to lessen tornado deaths in the future.

"We don't issue warnings,” Carbin said. "What we do forecasts outlooks for a medium range of four to eight days.”

On Jan. 30, the Storm Prediction Center started a discussion that identified "ingredients” that would come together in the South that would have a potential for severe weather.

But while the discussions from the Storm Prediction Center are available to the general public, they are written for other meteorologists and emergency managers, who are discussing storm models five to six days before they happen, Carbin said.

And while the Storm Prediction Center did predict violent storms, Carbin said there was no way to pinpoint deadly tornadoes that far in advance.

"We're talking about an area that is roughly 300 to 400 miles across,” he said. "I don't know the conditions in which these people died. Right now, we don't know if they could have gotten out of the way.”

Depending on the strength of the tornado, someone who thought they might be safe in the center of their house, might not be, Carbin said.

Considering the large area in which storms occurred, and the fact that there may have been anywhere from 30 to 40 tornadoes, Carbin said, the deaths are actually relatively low.

"It looks like most people were out of harm's way, but every once in a while, a tornado would hit a farm home or a mobile home where people apparently had nowhere to go.”

According to Carbin, Tuesday and Wednesday's deadly tornadoes resulted from a strong but typical storm system collided with a springtime air mass filled with moisture.

Because weather officials from the affected states had their hands full with immediate needs in the aftermath of Tuesday's storms, the National Weather Service in Tulsa volunteered to help.

The first thing the Tulsa meteorologists did was to prepare an "aviation forecast” which identifies favorable times to survey damage from the air.

"There were some low clouds that were restricting the ability to fly and assess damage,” said Steve Piltz, meteoroligst in charge. "So we put together a planning forecast to try to identify certain windows to get up in the air when the visibility would be favorable. The Little Rock office was swamped, so we took that for them.”

The Tulsa office also sent one of their own to go help map the tornado path in Baxter County, Ark., which Plitz said is an extremely important job that could save future lives.

Meteorologist Ed Calienese left the office midmorning Wednesday an plans to spend the day today mapping the tornado.

Armed with a laptop computer with the radar data from the time of the storm, Plitz said, Calienese can compare what he sees on the ground with what the radar data says to identify the size, strength and path of the tornado there.

The public wants to know the scope of the tornadoes, Plitz said, but the work is important because data can be compared against what meteorologists saw on radar to learn more about future storms.

"This kind of work teaches us a little bit more on how to issue better warnings the next time,” he said.

Michelann Ooten, a spokeswoman for the Oklahoma Department of Emergency Management, said the tornado outbreak points up the year-round danger of twisters, even though they are more likely to occur in the spring.

"Do our people typically anticipate tornadoes in February? Absolutely not,” she said. "But this points up truly you can have tornadoes any time of the year, which is why you need to have a NOAA weather radio and have that tool at your fingertips to get you through whatever emergency or disaster you find yourself a victim of.”

Contributing: The Associated Press

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