Obama popularity reflected in fewer registered Democrats

Nationally, the Democratic Party is having a hard time registering new voters. The party's “market share” of new registrations has fallen significantly since 2008, when Barack Obama rode a wave of new Democratic registrations in battleground states.

Obama is part of the equation in the decision of Democrats such as Nelson and U.S. Rep. Dan Boren of Muskogee to retire from Congress. They have other reasons, of course, but the party's popularity in Oklahoma, Nebraska and other red states is certainly a factor.

Democrats still hold a registration advantage, even in Oklahoma, but the advantage is fading. What's more, party registration isn't a firm indicator of who will win an election. Despite Oklahoma having more Democrats than Republicans, all statewide offices are filled by Republicans and Republicans are in solid control of the Legislature.

Obama may win another term next year despite these trends because swing states won't necessarily embrace the Republican nominee. But the battle in battleground states will be fierce. A key indicator of enthusiasm — or lack thereof — for Obama is the slide in new Democratic registrations — just as the Democratic surge in 2008 presaged his victory that year.