Last year, a quartet of USC juniors faced a quandary.
Skip their senior seasons to enter the NFL Draft?
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Or remain in school for another year with hopes of improving their stock?
The decision wasn't easy, since all four players figured to at least go on the first day of the draft if not the first round.
But bucking the trend, defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis, linebacker Keith Rivers, offensive tackle Sam Baker and defensive end Lawrence Jackson chose to stay.
And their patience paid off big.
Coming off banner senior seasons in which they all improved, each was taken in the first round of last month's draft.
By going in round one, the foursome collectively will earn more than $40 million in guaranteed salary on their first NFL contracts.
"I'm hoping everyone who takes a look at this, whether it's our guys or other guys, that they see there is clear information to play that final season,” USC coach Pete Carroll told the Los Angeles Times. "They make more money, not to mention that they are more mature to make that first impression.”
This past January, Oklahoma had five juniors who encountered the same dilemma.
Linebacker Curtis Lofton, wide receiver Malcolm Kelly and defensive back Reggie Smith chose to leave, against the advice of Bob Stoops and the rest of the OU coaching staff.
Offensive tackle Phil Loadholt and guard Duke Robinson elected to stay, even though they had been mentioned by analysts as possible first round candidates.
The three that left were being mentioned, too.
But in the end, Lofton and Kelly were selected in the second round; Smith wasn't taken until the third.
By failing to go in the first round, the trio missed out on the big rookie contracts.
Had they stayed, all three probably would've have had a better shot at the first round as only Lofton came close to maximizing his draft potential.
Meanwhile, in his recent 2009 mock draft, ESPN draft guru Todd McShay projects both Loadholt and Robinson as first-round picks, something that — according to their NFL draft grades — neither would have achieved had they also come out as juniors.
"Early on, I was just excited that my name was being mentioned,” Loadholt said. "But I knew that I wasn't ready for the NFL. I knew that I needed another season of improvement.”
Did Loadholt and Robinson make the smart decision?
Time will tell.
After all, injuries are always a possibility, though both Kelly and Smith had that very issue working against them as they had to delay working out in front of scouts until April.
USC's Baker, who could've been a top-15 pick had he come out early, suffered a broken rib and hamstring injury that kept him from playing in three games last season.
Still, Baker wouldn't have traded his senior year.
"Even if I would have gone later,” Baker told the Times, "I would not have regretted the decision to come back to USC.”
Coming back, however, is not all risk. A lot can happen that's positive.
Rarely do players regress between their junior and senior years. Usually, as Loadholt and Robinson are banking on, players improve.
That's what Jackson found out, citing "the maturity, the awareness of my body and the added knowledge of the game,” as attributes he gained during his senior season.
In the end, none of this means that Ellis, Rivers, Baker and Jackson will be better pros than Lofton, Kelly or Smith five years down the line.
What it does mean, though, is that they'll be a lot richer for the time being.
"It's paid off for me and for the other guys as well who decided to stay,” Rivers said. "Their dreams are going to come true.”
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Truth is, it's a gamble. Look at Brian Brohm. Projected after his great junior season as top 5 or 10 pick, he fell WAY down after a very good senior season on a not-so-good team. Didn't regress, didn' get injured, just dropped off the radar, so to speak. I know it's not the norm, but there no guarantee either way. The guys who leave early don't get as much at first, but they have that extra year of very good money in their pockets. If they pan out, they will make the big money later.
Let's all take up a collection for these poor guys so they can buy an extra movie chLet's all take up a collection for these poor guys so they can buy an extra movie channel per month on their cable. You can play your way to more money down the line. I believe it's referred to as "working hard."
Jimmy fell to the 6th round and was 189th overall pick where as MK fell to the second round, 51st pick, Curtis Lofton when higher than expected and RS still went on the first day. Not like they went early and fell to the second day.
Trying to figure out why Wilkerson is always used as an example. He did fine with the Chiefs and has now signed a 2 year deal with Tampa Bay worth 3 million plus a $300,000.00 signing bonus. Could he have made more by staying at OU another year? Who knows; seems to be doing just fine.
Cecil, I have to disagree on the Jimmy Wilkerson deal. I made the same remark to my brother when Lofton declared for the draft and he said the situation was completely different. I don't know all of the details of the story, but the jist of it is a woman in his family (I believe it to be either his mother or daughter) was very sick and he needed money to get them help. So he opted for the draft to get some guaranteed money (as little as it may be) to help her.
All three players made a bad decision when they decided to enter the draft this year. And it cost each of them millions of dollars in long-term earnings. We all understand the need for cash and the risk of injury, but unless you are Adrian Peterson and a lock for a Top 15 pick (and I mean LOCK, not GUESSTIMATE), the smart money says stay for your senior year. Malcolm Kelly now joins Jimmy Wilkerson in the "Sooner Shoulda Stayed in College Hall of Fame". Congrats, Malcolm!
I hope jim traber reads this article and figures out that staying one year extra in college and not taking the quick cash is way better then leaving to be a 2 or third round draft pick. Those 3 guys from USC will earn more than 13 million guaranteed dollars. Compare that to Kelly, Smith and Lofton and I bet the money gap is huge
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Oklahoma's Duke Robinson, right, decided not to jump to the NFL despite being mentioned by analysts as a possible first-round draft candidate. by CHRIS LANDSBERGER, THE OKLAHOMAN archive
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