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"Severe thunderstorm potential late this afternoon and tonight is the main concern," National Weather Service, Norman Forecast Office

by Bryan Painter Published: October 4, 2013

National Weather Service, Norman Forecast Office area forecast discussion, as of early Friday (4:16 a.m):

“Severe thunderstorm potential late this afternoon and tonight is the main concern.

“Through 3 p.m. this afternoon, partly to mostly cloudy, very warm, breezy and humid conditions will prevail. Would not be completely surprised if a few high based storms developed somewhere across the area, but think this remains unlikely due to decent capping. Highs will be generally 1 to 3 degrees cooler than yesterday due to more cloud cover.

“Between 3 p.m. this afternoon and 10 p.m. this evening, confidence continues to grow that storms will develop along the cold front. Appears first development may be somewhere near an Elk City to Alva line in the 3 p.m. to 7 p.m. time frame. First storms would have highest potential for being severe and supercellular with large hail, perhaps golf ball size, and damaging winds as the main hazards.

“Tornado potential remains low as the cold front should quickly move south and support mainly outflow dominated storms.

“Storms should quickly form a squall line along the cold front then move southeast, increasing in coverage. Locally heavy rainfall over an inch is possible as well.

“Between 10 p.m. tonight and 7 a.m. Saturday, the squall line of storms and cold front will push southeast and through the area. A few reports of damaging winds and hail will likely occur, but appears the severe potential will diminish through the night.

“The Oklahoma City metro area will be most affected by storms between 10 p.m. and 3 a.m. Locally heavy rainfall remains possible. Cold front should be through the entire area by sunrise Saturday.”

On Saturday, “Much cooler weather will occur. With the mid/upper trough lagging behind the cold front, abundant mid/high level cloud cover will probably results. Thus went several degrees below model guidance highs across the area except northwest Oklahoma where some afternoon sun will occur. Kept low rain chances mainly confined to southern Oklahoma, but no strong or severe storms are expected.”

by Bryan Painter
Assistant Local Editor
Bryan Painter, assistant local editor, has 31 years’ experience in journalism, including 22 years with the state's largest newspaper, The Oklahoman. In that time he has covered such events as the April 19, 1995 bombing of the Alfred P. Murrah...
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