WASHINGTON -- Global warming could be a boon to Russia, a European country could be overrun by organized crime and the U.S. and its dollar could further decline in importance during the next two decades, says a U.S. intelligence report with predictions for the world in 2025.
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The report, Global Trends 2025, is published every four years by the National Intelligence Council to give U.S. leaders insight into looming problems and opportunities.
The report says the warming earth will extend Russia and Canada's growing season and ease their access to northern oil fields, strengthening their economies. But Russia's potential emergence as a world power may be clouded by lagging investment in its energy sector, persistent crime and government corruption, the report says.
Analysts also warn that the same kind of organized crime plaguing Russia could eventually take over the government of an Eastern or Central European country. The report is silent on which one.
It also says countries in Africa and South Asia may find themselves unstable and ungoverned, as state regimes collapse or wither away under security problems and water and food shortages brought about by climate change and a population increase of 1.4 billion.
The potential for conflict will be greater in 2025 than it is now, as the world's population competes for declining and shifting food, water and energy resources.
Despite a more precarious world situation, the report also says al-Qaida's terrorist franchise could decay "sooner than people think." It cites its growing unpopularity in the Muslim world, where it kills most of its victims.
"The prospect that al-Qaida will be among the small number of groups able to transcend the generational timeline is not high, given its harsh ideology, unachievable strategic objectives and inability to become a mass movement," the report states.
The report forecasts a geopolitical rise in non-Arab Muslim states outside of the Middle East, including Turkey and Indonesia, and says Iran could also be a central player in a new world order if it sheds its theocracy.
The report, a year in the making, also suggests the world may complete its move away from its dependence on oil, and that the U.S. dollar, while remaining important, will decline to "first among equals" among other national currencies.
U.S. global power also will likely decline, as Americans' concerns about putting resources into solving domestic problems may cause the United States to pull resources from foreign and global problems.
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On the Net:
Global Trends 2025: http://www.dni.gov/nic/NIC_2025_project.html
Copyright 2008 The Associated Press.
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The report is extremely interesting. World population continues to grow exponentially, demanding more resources from an already strained ecosystem. Someday we will run out of either oil or atmosphere to feed tha machine. I personally think we have plenty of fossile fuels. 500 Million years of accumulation left plenty. But we don't have 500 million years of atmosphere. Think of it this way, 99% of all the atmosphere's mass is in a vertical distance of about 5 miles. That's basically a walk from I-35 to the West side of downtown. Yet we are burning a rate of millions of pounds of fuel per hour, essentially a 100% conversion from hydrocarbons to CO, CO2, and H2O. The planet isn't going to take much more CO2. It's argued that we've already crossed a point of no return. But since it won't affect any of us, no one really cares. The world of 2100 will be an interesting place. Tell your grand-kids you love them. They're going to need it.
Chris, wasn't referring to Tinker, but MWC, Del City, and OKC. Most of the land around tinker not developed is owned by either the county or city. Specifically, I think the intersection of Sooner and 29th was purchased years ago under the excuse that it would be a buffer, i.e. not be developed. City officials waited a few years for people to forget about it, and then resold the land to local developers. California did this kind of thing, or just allowed uncontrolled growth to sprawl base perimeters. Eventually the bases were sent packing due to political pressure from cities (i.e. greedy councils and business interests). "Exclusion zone" ratings were high factors in these decisions because they were essentially non-existant. You can't deny that a few sleezebag developers (and city leaders) haven't used this kind of thing for thier advantage around here. That also forces the base to be offensive on property acquisition as well - a way to delay eventual sprawl a few years... Until someone forces the base to sell it off. Research the latest fad of privatizing base housing someday. It's a shocker.
Wow that title is somewhat extreme when compared to the body of the article. Global warming will cause more terrorism, well ok, that seems to make sense (sarcasm)....gives us more reason to quit purchasing energy resources from terrorist or potentially threatening countries (makes sense).
James....Selling the land a few years later? And where exactlly has that happened? Anywhere that Tinker has owned...they still own. If youre talking Sooner in Del City, it was never owned by Tinker. There's nothing N (Glennwood is still for training), S (they just bought up more land from GM), E (They bough out the businesses that were there) , or W (I believe the same apartments and houses that have been there for 40 years are still there) of Tinker that is being built on.
The only thing that will doom Tinker is the continued sprawl around the base and the crooked local leaders (Republicans by the way) behind the shady deals and uncontrolled, unmanaged growth. Tinker's mission, location, and Oklahoma's relatively less crowded airspace are prime resources. As long as the local councils continue deals like buying land under the excuse Tinker needs exclusion space and then selling to developers a few years later, we're in trouble.
I have to laugh! After we've all ever so many pictures over the last several years showing W with a halo effect behind him or a load of American flags, the ironically oxymoronic "compassionate conservatives" have already elevated Obama to Divine Highness and Messiah. Forgive me if I note that my pet turtle is more messianic than George Walker Bush; you guys are annoying.
Mat, who knows, given another 7 years and 11 months or so of the learned, almost divine leadership of His Divine Highness Obama, he will get around to bailing you out after he has bailed out every union worker, broke upper Midwest business, the NY banks, and the State of California. I will send him your address in the soup line at the carcass of Tinker AFB closed by Barack and transferred to Ohio at Wright Patterson AFB to provide a little 'payback' to the folks in Ohio who put him over the top while Oklahoma was voting 68% for McCain. You, sir, are hopeless.....
Yeah that makes sense since there so many millionaires in Beaver. Pay attention. You might understand that Obama and the democrats are the best thing for this country right now.
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