From the Storm Prediction Center, Norman: A Tornado Watch is in effect until 8 p.m. Thursday Craig, Nowata and Ottawa counties.
From the National Weather Service, Norman Forecast Office:
This hazardous weather outlook covers northern…western… central…and southern Oklahoma…and western north Texas.
Day one…through tonight…
Thunderstorm outlook… isolated storms remain possible over far southeastern Oklahoma… primarily near and east of Wetumka…Atoka…and Durant. Organized severe storms are not expected.
Discussion… a cold front will continue to surge east/southeastward across the southern plains through this afternoon and evening. Ahead of this front… a dryline will reach as far as eastern Oklahoma before being overtaken by the front. Ahead of the front/dryline combo… low level moisture will continue to increase through early this evening. In response… sufficient instability will develop ahead of the front across portions of eastern Oklahoma. Isolated storms may develop near or just east of the front across far southeastern Oklahoma mid to late this afternoon… exiting quickly to the east through the evening.
Probability of thunderstorms occurring in the National Weather Service, Norman county warning area…30 percent.
Probability of severe storms if storms occur…15 percent.
Other hazardous weather… very warm… dry… and windy conditions will develop over southwestern Oklahoma and western north Texas this afternoon. This will result in very high to extreme wildfire danger. Although not as high…wildfire danger will be elevated farther north and east through the Oklahoma City metro. A red flag warning is in effect.
Looking ahead with the Hazardous weather outlook’s “thunderstorm outlook:” “Isolated storms will be possible Friday over southeastern Oklahoma. Any storms that develop are not expected to be severe.
“A chance for thunderstorms returns next Tuesday and Wednesday.
“Other hazardous weather, elevated wildfire dangers will return on Sunday and Monday with low humidities and strong winds.”
And from the National Weather Service, Tulsa Forecast Office:
Afternoon and evening severe storms possible later today…
This outlook is for northwest and west central Arkansas as well as much of eastern Oklahoma.
Day one, this afternoon and tonight.
Area…far eastern oklahoma and northwest arkansas.
Onset…after 3 pm.
Area…eastern oklahoma and northwest arkansas. onset…after 3 pm.
Area…eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
Fire weather danger.
Area…eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
Discussion: Isolated thunderstorms may develop during the mid to late afternoon hours along a dryline moving eastward across eastern Oklahoma…with more widespread development possible toward early evening as an approaching cold front overtakes the dryline. Instability and wind shear are both sufficient to support large hail…damaging winds…and even isolated tornadoes…with storms that develop. The greatest thunderstorm coverage…and the highest likelihood of seeing severe weather will be during the evening hours across far eastern Oklahoma and northwest and west central Arkansas. Isolated tornadoes will be most likely with any isolated storms that develop along the dryline. The severe storm threat will wane during the late evening hours…although thunderstorms may continue past midnight in parts of southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
In addition to the severe storm threat…south to southwest winds gusting above 40 mph in parts of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas…and above 25 to 30 mph across the rest of eastern Oklahoma and west central Arkansas…will continue through the rest of the afternoon before beginning to taper during the evening hours. The strong and gusty winds are currently leading to a very high fire danger across much of the region…but as drier air moves into parts of northeast Oklahoma this afternoon behind the dryline…the fire danger west of highway 75 will increase even more for a few hours prior to sunset.
Days two through seven…Friday through Wednesday.
Friday…severe thunderstorm potential.
Sunday…very high fire weather potential…high wind potential.
Monday and Tuesday…no hazards.
Wednesday…thunderstorm potential…high wind potential.
Extended discussion… thunderstorms will be possible once again Friday as the cold front stalls across western Arkansas and parts of southeast Oklahoma. An approaching upper disturbance interacting with the boundary may result in one or two severe storms across southeast Oklahoma…west central and northwest Arkansas…but the overall window for severe storms will be small on Friday.
Warmer and more settled conditions are expected for the weekend…with increased fire danger anticipated by Sunday with warm temperatures…increasing south winds…and relative humidity values remaining low. Low level moisture return will largely be held at bay until the middle of next week when a cold front moves into the region…offering the next chances for showers and thunderstorms.