Ukraine at potential turning point after crash

Published on NewsOK Modified: July 21, 2014 at 9:59 am •  Published: July 21, 2014
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MOSCOW (AP) — The crash of the Malaysian airliner in rebel-held eastern Ukraine is being viewed as a potential turning-point in the conflict — either, the international revulsion over the death of all 298 people on board will force the warring parties to seek an end to the violence, or the disaster will stoke the fighting as the recriminations escalate.

Four days on from the downing of the plane, both scenarios remain possible.

An assessment of the strategies and pressures in play in the conflict that has killed more than 400 people aside from the victims of the crash:

THE CAUSE

The Boeing 777 was almost certainly shot down, but who did it remains hotly disputed. Ukrainian authorities and Western countries mostly blame pro-Russia separatists in eastern Ukraine and there are some suggestions that Russia itself may have fired the missile. Russia, which denies allegations it is directing or aiding the rebels, hasn't directly lain the blame on anyone but its statements imply that Ukrainian forces were responsible.

Few think a definitive conclusion, if one can be reached, will be possible imminently. Despite calls for a full-scale international investigation, a probe has yet to begin and even when one begins, investigators will face a severely compromised crash scene. Rebels who control the crash site have allegedly interfered with the crash site by spiriting away bodies and hauled off pieces of evidence; the status of the plane's "black box" data and voice recorders remains unclear.

Given the huge opprobrium that would fall on whichever side brought down the plane, any report assigning fault would likely be vociferously disputed or rejected by the nominally guilty party.

CEASE-FIRE

A cease-fire in the wake of the crash has also yet to be observed despite calls from all around the world, including by Russia. The prospects of one emerging appear slim if history is any guide — in late June, a cease-fire called by the Ukrainian government side barely got off the ground.

The anger on the government side is also so high that any move toward compromise would likely be seen as a meek submission to violent and heedless forces already routinely characterized as "terrorists."

The rebels, meanwhile, dismissed the June cease-fire as a ruse by the Ukrainian army to reinforce positions and equipment in the east. That suspicion persists in the wake of a run of successes by the Ukrainian army.

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