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When can rain be expected this week?

by Bryan Painter Published: November 3, 2013
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The National Weather Service, Norman Forecast Office’s “Area Forecast Discussion”  said, “The main challenge is determining rain chances and amounts Monday through Tuesday night.

“Through 6 pm (CST)  today strong winds with gusts over 40 mph will continue across northwest Oklahoma. Wind advisory is in good shape. Winds should begin to subside a bit through 4 p.m., then significantly afterwards.

“Tonight, breezy and not as cool conditions can be expected. Mid/high level cloud cover will be thickest over southern Oklahoma and western north Texas. Added a chance of sprinkles south of a Waurika to Ada line after midnight as moisture may be deep enough to allow this to occur. Generally went towards the warmer side of guidance where cloud cover will be thickest and near a model blend farther north where clouds will be thinnest.

Monday, abundant mid/high cloud cover will be over southern Oklahoma and western north Texas. Scaled
back rain chances and kept them south of the line mentioned in the paragraph below due to the lack of significant lift or moisture. Highs may be a bit tricky due to cloud cover though most places should be in the 60s.

Monday night into Tuesday latest models were in decent agreement bringing the highest rain chances during this
time frame especially between midnight and noon. Increased rain chances slightly. Instability is forecast to be limited so strong or severe storms seem unlikely. Best rain chances seem to be near and east of Interstate 35, but some guidance suggested that they may need to be moved westward. Moisture is forecast to be high
with precipitable water values around the 95th percentile for this time of year as some tropical moisture from Sonia near the Baja works into the system.

Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, a cold front will move northwest to southeast and through the area bringing additional showers and perhaps a few storms. Due to limited instability, severe storms remain unlikely. Did not change this part of the forecast.

Regarding rainfall amounts Monday through Wednesday, appears a good part of the area could get between 0.50 inch and 2 inches with perhaps the heaviest amounts over southeast Oklahoma.
Amounts remain uncertain and will rely more on mesoscale features which latest models may not be handling too well.

Wednesday afternoon through next Sunday, dry weather and a slight warming trend are forecast. Wednesday will be a cool day with most locations not getting out of the 50s. Frost/freeze headlines may be necessary late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Temperatures are forecast to be near average by the end
of the week.

Also in weather news for Oklahoma:

Following are some of the 50 mph wind gusts recorded by the Oklahoma Mesonet today: Kenton, 51 mph, 12:50 p.m.; Kenton, 52 mph, 1:10 p.m.; Boise City, 50 mph, 1:25 p.m.; Boise City, 50 mph, 1:30 p.m. and Boise City, 53 mph, 1:55 p.m.

The coolest minimum temperatures so far on this Sunday  have included 29.8 degrees at 5:40 a.m. at Talihina, 30.7 degrees at 5:45 a.m. at Wister, and 30.8 degrees at 5:30 a.m. at Pryor.   

And, here’s a look at  the Oklahoma City forecast through Sunday from the  National Weather Service, Norman Forecast Office, as of 4:07 p.m.:

Tonight Partly cloudy, with a low around 51. South wind 14 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.

Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 66. South wind 11 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.

Monday Night Showers, mainly after midnight. Low around 54. South southeast wind around 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80 percent.

Tuesday Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High near 62. South southeast wind 11 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90 percent.

Tuesday Night Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 42. South southeast wind 11 to 14 mph becoming north northwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80 percent.

Wednesday A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 53.

Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 36.

Thursday Sunny, with a high near 60.

Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 39.

Friday Sunny, with a high near 63.

Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 42.

Saturday Sunny, with a high near 64.

Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 44.

Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 63.

by Bryan Painter
Assistant Local Editor
Bryan Painter, assistant local editor, has 31 years’ experience in journalism, including 22 years with the state's largest newspaper, The Oklahoman. In that time he has covered such events as the April 19, 1995 bombing of the Alfred P. Murrah...
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